Print Story From the "be careful what you wish for" file
By lm (Wed Jul 20, 2022 at 07:53:41 AM EST) (all tags)

Democrat movers and shakers stated that the ad buy was just them starting the general election early by targeting the dude they thought would win. But it appears to be a thinly veiled way to gin up the MAGA base to favor the one candidate they think they could win against.

Reminds me a bit of how I was briefly excited that Trump won the GOP primary in 2016 because I thought that he was the only candidate HRC stood a chance of winning against.

Fortunately MD doesn't have a state equivalent of the electoral college for gubernatorial races.

But still I have to wonder at the long-term wisdom of pushing a mini-Trump for governor. We're coming off of 8 years of a Republican governor with the scars to show for it. Baltimore's Red Line cancelled. MoCo's Purple Line scaled back and mismanaged. Millions spent on unusable Covid tests  from a company tied to the governor's wife. Federalist society judges appointed to benches across the state.

If the final tally makes Cox the GOP candidate for governor, we'll be one scandal or unforced error away of doubling down from a massive cock-up in the MD state house.

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From the "be careful what you wish for" file | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 hidden)
wondering by aphrael (4.00 / 4) #1 Wed Jul 20, 2022 at 04:54:35 PM EST
> But still I have to wonder at the long-term wisdom of pushing a mini-Trump for governor.

it's dumb, dumb, dumb, and puts the entire state at risk. the fact that democrats keep doing this is one of the things that's pushing me in the direction of concluding that the democrats are hopelessly lost and untrustworthy and that we need a new left-of-center party yesterday.
If television is a babysitter, the internet is a drunk librarian who won't shut up.

It might be good game theory but... by ObviousTroll (4.00 / 2) #2 Wed Jul 20, 2022 at 05:26:33 PM EST
it's terrible ethics. There's a MAGA GOP hispanic woman (not kidding) who won a special election to Congress in Texas. Due to redistricting she has to face an incumbent white male Dem in the fall. A (not reliably sourced) claims the Dem has been paying bloggers to go after her, not by attacking her far-right record but the fact that she's a damned <insert anti-hispanic-racist-slur-here> - which plays to stereotypes about GOP voters but may not be the win he thinks it is, since damned <insert anti-hispanic-racial-slur-here> tend to be far more conservative than white Democrats are. He might end up just turning out the hispanic community to support her.

Even if they’re pushing MAGAs, it may not matter by wiredog (2.00 / 0) #3 Thu Jul 21, 2022 at 06:52:30 AM EST
From The Bulwark,
(1) In general, we’re seeing similar results in most R primaries, whether or not Dems have “meddled.”
(2) In the specific cases of Pennsylvania and Maryland, the Democratic boosting does not seem to have made a significant difference.
(3) Republican voters have agency.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)

I don't see how you would measure (2) by lm (2.00 / 0) #5 Thu Jul 21, 2022 at 11:20:20 AM EST
All of the recent polls I'm aware of had the Cox/Schultz race within the margin of error despite Last's claims Cox had a healthy lead "in the polls". The article he links to points to a poll from March.

And according to those recent polls, more than 40% of GOP voters were still undecided before early voting started.

How would you measure if Democratic ads motivated turnout for MAGA types in sufficient numbers to overcome Schultz but wouldn't have otherwise?

(3) is just plain idiocy. It's effectively reduces to the claim that political ads of any sort are ineffective.

(1) cherry picks the data. Primaries this year have been a mixed bag for Trump endorsed candidates.

Kindness is an act of rebellion.
[ Parent ]
It does work sometimes by kwsNI (2.00 / 0) #4 Thu Jul 21, 2022 at 07:57:25 AM EST
McCaskill pulled off some next level politicking in Missouri once.

I have no doubt it might work by lm (2.00 / 0) #6 Thu Jul 21, 2022 at 11:22:53 AM EST
And the facts of the ground in MD suggest it may very well work.

I'm just saying that it's not worth the risk of it not working. The price of failure if it does happen is extraordinarily high on this one.

Kindness is an act of rebellion.
[ Parent ]
yeah by dev trash (2.00 / 0) #7 Sun Jul 24, 2022 at 12:35:36 AM EST
We have a mini-Trump in Virginia.  DeSantis, Youngkin, Trump all in a 2024 primary fight to prove who's the most MAGA.  In a sane world they'd all three destroy each other, but alas.

From the "be careful what you wish for" file | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 hidden)