Print Story super typhoons vs. the red spot on jupiter
By the mariner (Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 12:02:47 PM EST) super weather, jupiter (all tags)
so apparently there was a typhoon in the philippines:

pretty intense stuff. these high intensity storms are pretty scary viewed from a global warming/climate change perspective, particularly the bit about the sustained intensity of this storm over land -- category 5 for 48 hours, pretty ridiculous.

my question to weather fans is: at what point does global warming precipitate stable storm systems that just circle the south pacific and indian ocean indefinitely, like the red spot on jupiter?

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super typhoons vs. the red spot on jupiter | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 hidden)
We don't know by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #1 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 12:20:01 PM EST
It seems likely that climate change will cause more extreme weather events, as more heat means more energy going into the storm systems. But there's no way to predict extreme events, or an exact point when a positive feedback cycle will take hold.

As Tyler Cowen points out: "uncertainty about outcomes should make us worry more not less".
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

i don't think the question is unanswerable. by the mariner (2.00 / 0) #2 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 12:42:54 PM EST
my understanding is that behavior like the red spot on jupiter can be reliably reproduced in simulations.

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Simulations where... by ana (4.00 / 2) #3 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 01:08:33 PM EST
you're allowed to freely pick your initial conditions to make the final outcome look like reality.

Here we're stuck with the initial conditions, and just waiting for the butterflies to flap, or not to flap.

I now know what the noise that is usually spelled "lolwhut" sounds like. --Kellnerin

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no butterflies on jupiter have stopped the spot by the mariner (4.00 / 1) #4 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 02:41:00 PM EST
i suspect that any simulation of weather with conditions even moderately close to jupiter will result in persistent cyclones like the red spot. my understanding is that such simulations go back to the 70s or sth.

in my (inexpert) experience with simulations of simpler dynamical systems, qualitative features like existence of invariant tori are remarkably robust under perturbations, even outside of the KAM context where there is rigorous proof of such robustness (of course there are results to the contrary, but my impression is that the kinds of perturbations considered are unphysically general).

my point is, i doubt initial conditions are that important. weather strikes me as highly mixing, with what's happening today telling you damn near nothing about what happens 60 days later. put another way, if there's something that can happen with reasonable probability, i think it generally will, subject to seasonality and whatever else.

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i know some people doing LR weather... by gzt (2.00 / 0) #11 Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 03:44:43 PM EST
...they look to at least a 6 month window. it's highly inaccurate - interestingly, most models bias temperature low in their long range forecasts. but the impression i get is that you can say something 60 days out that's more than just a climate-based guess. but, yeah, not too much.

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yeah. by the mariner (2.00 / 0) #12 Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 09:00:55 PM EST
my understanding is that weather forecasting past a few days relies on "big data"-ish extrapolations from actual physical simulations in such a way that it's not even understood why it works so well in the ~10 day out range.

i looked into the jupiter thing a bit and it turns out the state of the art is somewhat less impressive than i thought, although it does seem that they can reliably produce the band structure and eddies (maybe not always the same red spot).

anyway, permanent typhoon 2016.

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Well by Scrymarch (2.00 / 0) #15 Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 10:50:38 AM EST
Lots of good evidence for climate change causing overall warming, and possibly disruption to weather systems, but the latest IPCC report affirms little evidence of increased extreme weather events|.

Just slow, sucky, long term change killing people, animals and plants - not so much more extreme storms and so on.

Iambic Web Certified

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This sounds like a case of hairy balls. by dark nowhere (4.00 / 1) #5 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 05:31:17 PM EST
No really:

See you, space cowboy.

The fuck? by Gedvondur (4.00 / 1) #7 Fri Nov 08, 2013 at 09:39:54 PM EST
Last time I shaved my balls there was blood on the bathroom floor.  Fuck that.

"So I will be hitting the snatch hard, I think, tonight." - gzt
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Clearly, you should help him out by lm (4.00 / 2) #9 Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 12:23:20 PM EST
If not in person, perhaps you could put up a YouTube video demonstrating proper technique.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
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sorry, gmd, but by nathan (4.00 / 2) #14 Mon Nov 11, 2013 at 05:20:57 PM EST
I have no interest in shaving your balls without cutting myself. 

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no, you misunderstand. by nathan (4.00 / 0) #17 Wed Nov 13, 2013 at 05:11:24 PM EST
I'm interested in shaving your balls, but only if I can self-harm while doing so. 

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it's important to have a direct line of sight. by the mariner (2.00 / 0) #10 Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 01:54:25 PM EST

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super typhoons vs. the red spot on jupiter | 13 comments (13 topical, 0 hidden)