Our apartment is quite well-insulated. We turned the AC off at maybe 11am shortly before we left for our 4th of July celebrations. When we returned at like 8:30, it was only 83 degrees inside despite a high of 100+ and an exterior temperature still in the low 90s. It took a while for it to cool off when we turned the AC on, though.

Reading a bit about "online learning". Not what it sounds like at first blush, it's sequential learning. It can be taken as an approach to statistics without probability. Coincidentally, Larry Wasserman's web-log just wrote about it. I take this as a sign. I like how it talks about "regret". "Maximum regret", "minimax regret", etc.

A friend of mine, an economic consultant of sorts, wrote an unpublished article about predicting the impact of the ACA on providers and insurers based on shocks to their stock prices and conluded the hospitals benefit and insurers don't. That sounds about right according to my hindsight bias: increased regulation (costly for insurers to implement) and firm governmental limits on loss ratios don't sound good for insurer profits. Those thinking of this as a payout for insurers need to join the reality-based community.

I suppose the evening of July 3rd counts as part of the 4th festivities, so I should mention that, too. We went and saw Brave and then ate at an "Irish" pub. The food was good, but pricey. In retrospect, perhaps we should have eaten at the cheaper-looking price with a taco special, but it was good and I won't complain. I had the "Irish breakfast". Brave was a fun film and very well done. It isn't great literature and feels like more Disney (good Disney) than Pixar, but it's pretty good for what it was. I do like how they didn't force Merida into a romance at the end.

I wonder if the recent bouts of extreme weather are the sort of thing that will finally spur Americans into action about climate change. I had a joking troll comment on G+ about how global warming is the Democrat Party's fault. Their high taxes are interfering with free market solutions to the energy crisis and climate change. All seriousness aside, though, it is only when, rightly or wrongly, the American public feels that global warming is going to be destructive or, worse, inconvenient to their way of life in the immediate future will they do anything about it. The next month and the next three months are predicted to be warmer than normal across most of the US and the drought monitor looks terrible (the predictions look worse).

Scientific forecaster discussion of local stuff: http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=LOT&StateCode=IL&SafeCityName=Chicago In short: ugh, the next couple days look bad.

I liked OSC's perceptive review about Snow White and am intrigued by the book he mentions after it: http://hatrack.com/osc/reviews/everything/2012-06-21.shtml
I was pointed to it by his review of Brave, which I think is a little too hard on it: http://hatrack.com/osc/reviews/everything/2012-06-28.shtml

I've been skipping the gym because of the heat. I'm feeling weak now.