Who the hell knows what the odds are of a massive outbreak of deadly flu? Whatever they are, there's a pretty good chance that one's intuition is higher than the "true probability". So I am not particularly worried. It's like terrorism. However, this really is not something you can operate on by assigning probabilities. How the hell would one know that the true probability of this flu turning into the next Spanish flu is 1/100 or 1/10,000 or 1/1,000,000? It's absurd to think about it that way. It would be some fluke one-off event. You can't know, you can't guess, you have no real history of tragedy: it's like stock market crashes. They are all unique. Thinking in terms of probability and expectation will only make you silly.
The only answer is to say, well, sanitizing your hands frequently is fairly low-cost and low-impact, but it is highly-effective in terms of preventing disease transmission. I always come down with a cold or something when I fly, anyway, so I'll probably be happier in the end if I wash my hands frequently at the airport even if I do look a little neurotic. If it does suddenly turn 12 Monkeys on us, well, I'd rather die terrified than live forever. I live as few men have dared to dream. If you let this nonsense get to you, the terrorists have already won.
Okay. I have to work. And prepare a friggin' presentation.
< Processing the mundane | It's finally happening. > |