"Well Green Bay really wants to win this game, because it's been proven that teams who win the first game of the year make the playoffs twice as often as teams that don't".
Ignoring the obvious "Green Bay really wants to win" part, I did find the second part interesting: Teams that win the first game of the year make the playoffs twice as much as teams that lose the first game. I've no doubt that this is probably true, yet sort of misleading, for a couple of reasons:
- I fail at math, but I suspect that stats could show that winning the first game gives those teams a certain percentage higher chance of making the playoffs simply because they have one more win under their belts compared to the first week losers. Certainly that percentage wouldn't be +50%, but still.
- Quoting that stat seems to imply that there is some mystical quality of the first win, but isn't it just as likely to assume that the +50% playoff chance is due more to the fact that on any given week, the best teams in the NFL have a better chance of winning, and these will be the teams that will make the playoffs? In other words, I would be very interested to see what the teams winning week 5, for example, or week 10, says about teams making the playoffs. I suspect the numbers would be almost identical.
In other news, the Chiefs suck. I know I've said that before, but after watching them yesterday, I just don't see how they're going to get 4 wins this year. You know you're in trouble when the Texans offensive line dominates you on a 10 minute scoring drive in the 4th quarter, and your defense is supposedly one of your teams strengths. Granted the Chiefs D had been on the field quite a lot and was tired, but it's not like that Chiefs O is going to get significantly better as the season wears on. Teams are just going to load 8 in the box and beat LJ's head in all year, and basically dare the Chiefs to throw on them.
As crazy as this sounds, I'm seriously considering starting Grossman next week against them. If the Chiefs could only score 3 against the Texans, the Bears are going to hold them to negative points somehow. I mean even Grossman can complete passes against d-backs that are crawling on their hands and knees, right?
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