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Diary
By TheophileEscargot (Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 12:58:51 PM EST) Reading, Theatre, Me, MLP (all tags)
Reading: "Wild Grass", "Logistics and Supply Chain Management", "Chez Max". Watching: "The Hot Tub Time Machine". Me: pondering wedding rings. Links.

What I'm Reading
Wild Grass by Ian Johnson. Interesting book, in three sections, about three different people in China resisting the authorities in different ways. One is a lawyer battling illegally high local taxes, one a woman trying to investigate the death in custody of her mother (a follower of the Falun Gong sect), one a man trying to protect historical buildings and neighbourhoods in Beijing.

Gives an interesting insight into China. Author makes the point that while Chinese people often claim not to be interested in "politics", they are strongly interested in anti-corruption, and in civic issues.

Worth a look if you're interested in China.

What I'm Reading
Logistics and Supply Chain Management by Martin Christopher seems like an effective introduction to logistics. Read this as preparation for the new job I start next week, it's not that fascinating in its own right.

Does have a few interesting case facts though. Points out that Tesco and Wal-Mart have IT systems where everyone in their supply network has real-time extranet access to some of their till data, so potentially a sheep-farmer can see someone's bought a lamb chop.

What I'm Reading
Chez Max by Jakob Arjouni. Short near-future novel about a kind of Gestapo-lite "Ashcroft Agent", a German in Paris, who suspects his partner of being a terrorist agent. Has a nice depiction of the obnoxiously self-deluded protagonist. Plot didn't seem that interesting though.

There seems to be a spate of dystopian future novels written by mainstream writers, I've got a couple more in the stack.

Not too sure about this one, I would have liked to see a bit more about how this world operates, though there's some interesting satire of the future Fortress Europe.

Overall, not bad, not unmissable.

What I'm Watching
Saw The Hot Tub Time Machine. Comedy about dysfunctional middle-aged men who get the chance to revisit their Eighties heyday.

Has a bit of an odd mix of teen gross-out comedy and a somewhat sensitive depiction of failed lives, but it actually works pretty well.

Me
So I need to pick out a wedding ring and I'm struggling to decide since I'm not a big jewellery wearer.

Girl B wants rose gold to match the engagement ring, but the pink looks a bit girly and I don't think suits my skin colour. I initially thought that his'n'hers had to match, but apparently not, so at least that leaves me free.

I usually wear a silver-coloured watch and glasses these days so I was thinking of a similar coloured ring. I liked the look of the white gold rings in the shop, but apparently that comes from a rhodium plating which wears off in a couple of years to a yellowy-grey I'm not keen on. Palladium looks good, but apparently that develops a dull grey patina over time too. Also worried it might seem a bit gimmicky in a few years since it's apparently trendy now.

So, not sure whether to go for good old-fashioned yellow gold, or one of the white metals which can apparently be replated or repolished fairly easily anyway.

Web
Socioeconomics. What's not wrong, wrong with economics. Short abstract: Why Systematically Poor Performing Asset Managers Survive. Americans overestimate number of gays and lesbians.

Pics. Ferropolis, via. Hairy donkey.

Video. 2012 Transit of Venus. Trapped in Technology song How to drink whisky. Olympignorance. Galaxy of Passion: A Star Wars Telenovela.

Articles. The History of the Female Shipwright, 18th century cross-dressing sailor/ Marketer reckons Olympic logo fascism is a mistake: "They have focused all their efforts on identity at the expense of equity."

Sci/Tech. Followup on exercise and depression study. Why VB6 thrives (I think it misses the point a bit, it was often the fastest way to solve a real-world business problem and probably still is sometimes). Adieu Minitel.

News. Immigration rules changes to introduce minimum income for marriage partners.

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- Why Systematically Poor Performing Asset Managers Survive
- Americans overestimate number of gays and lesbians
- Ferropolis
- via
- Hairy donkey
- 2012 Transit of Venus
- Trapped in Technology song
- How to drink whisky
- Olympignorance
- Galaxy of Passion: A Star Wars Telenovela
- The History of the Female Shipwright, 18th century cross-dressing sailor
- Marketer reckons Olympic logo fascism is a mistake
- Followup on exercise and depression study
- Why VB6 thrives
- Adieu Minitel
- Immigration rules changes to introduce minimum income for marriage partners
- TheophileEscargot's Diary
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That was the Sixties. We had Reagan and AIDS. | 45 comments (45 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Immigration rule by R343L (4.00 / 1) #1 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 01:17:13 PM EST
Am I reading that right? Basically I would summarize it: if you're poor (ish) beware of falling in love with a non-EU national.

"There will be time, there will be time / To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet." -- Eliot


Yes [nt] by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #6 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:17:58 PM EST

--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]

that's, uh, awful /nt by R343L (4.00 / 1) #9 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:27:14 PM EST


"There will be time, there will be time / To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet." -- Eliot
[ Parent ]

There is a perceived problem by Herring (4.00 / 1) #10 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:46:20 PM EST
fuelled (of course) by the tabloid press that (brown) people marry foreigners to get them into the UK where they all claim benefits. Whether this is actually a problem, well it's quite hard to tell and nobody is really interested in providing trustworthy numbers.

Making policy based upon fears stirred up by the media is much easier than solving real problems though.

PS: Scared you wouldn't pass the spoken English test?

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

not really by R343L (4.00 / 1) #11 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 03:18:11 PM EST
I'm sure they make allowances for accent. :)

Anyway, it does seem like that's all it is: the foreigners are coming to get benefits. Quite similar to the nativist arguments here. Sigh.

"There will be time, there will be time / To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet." -- Eliot
[ Parent ]

Accents are no problem by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #12 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 03:24:36 PM EST
Just talk like a super-villain and they'll take you as English.
---
[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]

That depends by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #25 Tue Jun 12, 2012 at 08:34:55 AM EST
The immigration case worker may not take so well to always being addressed as "Mr Bond".

Iambic Web Certified
[ Parent ]

I was at a border agency seminar today by ambrosen (4.00 / 1) #15 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 04:10:57 PM EST
Which was an interesting experience and not that congruent with my interests, but still part of my job.

Anyway, it seems that the really expensive thing to do with recent immigrants (Nigeria and south Asia are the main problematic areas) is more that they invite elderly and sick relative over to visit and get all their health problems fixed up while they're over here. It probably does account for a non-negligible section of acute (i.e. non mental health) hospital budgets.

But given that this is something already precluded by the law but with very poor enforcement* (and it's not as if it'll be made easier by the NHS reorganisation), presumably they've gone for much easier targets which will stymie economic growth on top of being a horrendous infringement on dignity and personal sovereignty but look like they're doing something.

The fact is that they're trying to appeal to gut instincts of the general public. Sadly, gut reactions to problems in complex systems normally just make the complex system work, and if they're public services, that's normally unspeakably inhumane.

Not to mention, what happens if another non-EEA nation has a similar stipulation on marriage? Where will those people live?

*News is, the forthcoming Panorama documentary on this won't be out for another few months

[ Parent ]

Interesting by Herring (4.00 / 1) #16 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 05:22:19 PM EST
Something I read elsewhere, admittedly some years ago, suggested that the problem of "health tourism" was fairly limited - around 1 in 30,000 patients. Fairly hard to measure though as you (me) are never asked for your NHS number when accessing treatment.

(There is of course the reverse problem when people have procedures done privately abroad and then the NHS has to pick up the problems when it goes pear-shaped)

Also something quoting H.L. Mencken about solutions that are Simple, Neat and Wrong.

I've lost my thread now so I'll just hit Post.

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

For EU healthcare, by ambrosen (4.00 / 2) #23 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:47:57 PM EST
We pay out about €1 billion for UK citizens treated overseas (mainly pensioners retired abroad) and receive about £26 million back. I suspect the main place we're losing out on money from EU countries is that those pensioners end up flying back whenever they want to see a doctor anyway, but someone mentioned today about Eastern Europeans (Lithuania was a country mentioned) in illegal work here who thus aren't entitled to be here as EU treaties only cover freedom of movement for legal work, study or (possibly indefinite) leisure.

For visitors not covered by reciprocal agreements, my back of the envelope figures would be in the same ballpark: £500 million or so a year. Dialysis patients and complicated pregnancies are the big ticket items. And treatment isn't refused for immediately necessary care, as indeed it shouldn't be.

So basically, it's actually a largish amount of money compared to normal tabloid outrage fodder. But I have to say, I'm glad that in mental health anyone who needs treatment basically gets free treatment because they can't be charged for compulsory treatment.


[ Parent ]

Thanks for the healthcare by garlic (4.00 / 1) #30 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 12:36:28 PM EST
When I was in London, the British Museum food poisoned me so badly I spent a day in the hospital there. They checked for appendicitis and then gave me an IBS perscription and then sent me off. I did make it clear (clearer than my accent anyways) that I was a dirty foreigner to someone, but noone seemed to mind.


[ Parent ]

I suspect by Herring (4.00 / 1) #31 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 12:55:19 PM EST
(Although I have no evidence) that enforcement might cost more than we lose by treating dirty foreigners. Maybe ambrosen can correct. It's certainly true that the government (started under the previous government) are paying a fuckload of money to private companies to check on disability benefit fraud when the level is reckoned to be around 0.5%.

The idea of paying a private company to persecute the disabled doesn't sit well with me but presumably the government have figured out that they aren't going to march.

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

Well... by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #26 Tue Jun 12, 2012 at 05:57:12 PM EST
The Equality and Human Rights Commission says half of Muslim men and three quarters of Muslim women are unemployed., although some immigrants do better than white British.

Then again, Muslims are apparently discriminated (in France at least) against when applying for jobs so I suspect there's a whole load of smoke to be blown all over the statistics.

Then again, with just shy of 2.7 million unemployed in UKia, the debate on whether immigration is good thing or not, overall is focused on the wrong things, IMHO.


[ Parent ]

Not quite by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #27 Tue Jun 12, 2012 at 06:37:30 PM EST
Unemployment isn't the same as not being employed, since lots of not-employed people are retired or in education. From the actual report that Telegraph article refers to:
While there is some variation in employment rates among different religious groups, the most significant gap is for Muslim people who have the lowest rates of employment in the UK as shown in Figure 11.1.6. In the UK only 47% of Muslim men and 24% of Muslim women are employed; male Muslim unemployment is 9% compared to the national average of 5%.

--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]

Hmmm by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #32 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:28:55 PM EST
9% vs 5% is not a good statistic though is it?  Nearly twice as many male Muslims are unemployed as the national average.

And don't forget, "many immigrant families are larger than average" so that imposes a cost in housing benefit, child benefit, hospital and schools and so on.

That said, I don't think I have ever read a good, proper end to end analysis of immigration and the effects on UKia; they all have an agenda to push regardless.

I would like to read one, though.  ~2.7 mil unemployed and we're still importing labour?  I am shocked at the Left for their support; Far Right wingers love immigration as it drives down wages and kills Trade Unions.


[ Parent ]

on the left, social issues >> money by nathan (4.00 / 2) #33 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 05:49:11 PM EST
In law school, I sat in bemusement listening to a speech about how the free movement of labor is morally mandated because it allows people from the Third World to live better lives. If this causes harm to people in the First World, that's an acceptable cost, because the net positives to humanity outweigh the net negatives. The speaker was also apparently willing to make an exception for Israel because of its "ethnic and security situation." But America, Britain, France, Sweden, etc., were required to accept everyone who showed up.

Ladies and gentlemen, your global elites! Sure, they're "left" in that they're anti-racist and love gay marriage. But then, the same is true of David Frum and the WSJ editorial page.

[ Parent ]

Strictly speaking by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #34 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 06:00:44 PM EST
Your free marketeer quite likes equalisation of labour costs, as it allows specialisation, which drives down costs, and drives up societal wealth, on average (we'll ignore the distribution of that wealth.  Immigration is a small part of that, but the free marketeers insist that the immigration must be beneficial. 

I'm still not convinced we have a metric to measure that benefical effect correctly, end to end, everything counted. 

There are those that look solely at productivity without looking at overall cost of receiving the immigrants, and there are those that ignore everything other than the social issues of leaving educated people in their native shitholes and ignore everything else.

Like I said, I'd like some proper analysis on this one, and I've not seen it yet.


[ Parent ]

Odd by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 2) #36 Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:29:30 AM EST
I've seen study after study after study after study after study on immigration. They constantly pop up on my RSS feed, especially on VoxEU. Overall there's a pretty good consensus that immigration boosts GDP overall, boosts incomes for native-born skilled workers, but depresses wages somewhat for native-born unskilled workers. Most studies show immigration causes a slight rise to overall employment, one or two show a slight fall: the effect on overall employment is small enough to be hard to measure.

Moving from practice to theory, it's important not to fall into the "lump of labour fallacy" that there is a fixed amount of work to go round, so an immigrant must "take a job" from an existing worker. Remember that:

  1. An immigrant is a consumer as well as a producer. He eats, he goes shopping, he pays for services: this demand creates work for others.
  2. His work creates more value than his wages, if his employers are making a profit.
  3. There can be "complementary labour". E.g. If a refurbishment project requires a carpenter, a plumber, an electrician and a plasterer; and there's a shortage of plasterers; the carpenter, plumber and electrician may not be able to work on it: hiring an immigrant plasterer would enable the others to start working.
Overall, even though the lumb of labour fallacy means most people think immigrants take lots of jobs from native-born workers, in reality there's neither theoretical support or significant empirical data that it really happens.
--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]

Nice one. by Breaker (4.00 / 2) #37 Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:27:31 PM EST
Thanks for the links, I shall enjoy reading them.

I would mention though that a certain number of EE immigrants (and likely more, but this is my personal experience) live in dormitories, bed share between night and day shift in their packed dormitories.  3 bed houses holding 6-8 people, basically.

The express desire of these folk is to work their tits off for a year or so, at lower wages but at a far lower cost of living than someone who has to find space for themselves and family, then go home with the proceeds of their year of hardship. 

Everything they spend is not luxurious; they're fixed on the idea of going home with a big wedge of cash so they won't be spending as much in their local economy.  I can't knock that - can you imagine going home at 25 years old or so with enough to buy a reasonable house in your home town, and a brand new car?

That's not a sustainable way of living for most people that live here; tradesmen certainly need to earn enough to keep themselves and families.  Which is why your statement "depresses wages somewhat for native-born unskilled workers" is so important.  That's not something I'm seeing anything happening to other than being brushed under the carpet.  The right wingers as they don't want people to know that the lower income people are being screwed, the left wingers because they don't want their voting constituency to know they've been abandoned.

That said, thanks for this conversation, TE, I have learned some new things.  And I think it's probably the calmest and most rational discussion I've participated in to date.


[ Parent ]

From the opposite end by Dr Thrustgood (4.00 / 1) #35 Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 03:08:39 AM EST
I'm immigrant earning substantially more than the national average. I'm also bringing in large amounts of money from outside the country, spending it here, and starting to create jobs for the locals.

Comments like your one really make me feel rather uncomfortable. Why? Because I came here with all of GBP 2K in my pocket, and despite my hi-tech working background, have 2 A-levels and no degree to my name. In other words, I think it's unlikely that I would pass many - if any - entrant requirements.

I don't know what the solution is, and like you I'd like to see some end-to-end analysis. That said, what do you want to see right now? A total end to all immigration? At the more extreme end, that'd leave both of us sans wife ;-)



[ Parent ]

What are the unemployment numbers by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #38 Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 05:40:59 PM EST
For Polska?

What I would like to see is a proper, independant full spectrum analysis of immigration, segmented from the highly skilled right through to basic physical labour.  A full cost-benefit analysis of where the immigration is a positive, and where it is a negative, acreoss everything from the shift in wages, pressure on public services (right down to sewage management), summed, cross diced and spliced.

But as I've mentioned in previous posts, we only get a slice of this analysis, because there's an axe to grind (on both sides of the left/right camp and more besides).

Then, I'd like to see some government policy based on evidence.  Not some "evidence" tailored to fit policy.


[ Parent ]

Usually hovers around 12-13% n/t by Dr Thrustgood (4.00 / 1) #39 Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 04:48:02 AM EST



[ Parent ]

And the bennies? by Breaker (2.00 / 0) #42 Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:15:29 PM EST
12-13% is pretty high.

How's the language skills going, BTW?


[ Parent ]

Bennies have to be pretty low by Dr Thrustgood (2.00 / 0) #43 Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 10:07:24 AM EST
Considering average wage here is something like 500GBP/month gross. Certainly haven't heard of much entitlement - otherwise I'd try and grab it ;)

Am getting there with the language now; can have a long conversation with a sympathetic listener, and have a good portion of it be grammatically correct.

Still can't forgive regularly finding out yet another grammatical form of the number 2 exists...



[ Parent ]

Follow-up by Dr Thrustgood (2.00 / 0) #44 Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 07:23:32 AM EST
Just on the off-chance you're still interested, current unemployment rate has fallen to 12.6%, with the highest county-equivalent being 19.7%, and the lowest 9.3%:

http://thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/103974,Jobless-rate-falls-in-Poland



[ Parent ]

Good news then! by Breaker (2.00 / 0) #45 Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 05:52:06 PM EST
Yay for more jobs.


[ Parent ]

Statistics by Vulch (2.00 / 0) #40 Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 11:21:39 AM EST
I'd say that comparing unemployment rates between an immigrant population largely settled in certain urban areas with a national average rate is selection to produce a desired result. What are the comparative rates for similar (or even the same) areas?


[ Parent ]

Yep by Breaker (2.00 / 0) #41 Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 06:14:52 PM EST
selection to produce a desired result
That's pretty much what I've been arguing about.

Did you know over 80%[1] of 16 year olds in Britain are unemployed?

Cracking headline for the Torygraph - "bloody immigrants, bin the minimum wage", Grauniad - "this evil coalition harms the young the hardest".

And yet, 75%[1] of 16 year olds are in further education and can't be in full time employment.

That's what really fucks me off about this kind of thing.  The left slags off the right for x the right slags off the left for y.  And in the meantime, the people are ignored.  Bring me people of talent to run the country - who ignore these foolish blinds they mantle themselves in - and bring me some leaders and ministers that'll do the thing that works instead of the thing that will give them a stone to throw at the other lot.

Sorry, got a bit BreakerMatic there.

[1] I made this up, but aside from the numbers the point stands.


[ Parent ]

Wedding preparations by ucblockhead (4.00 / 2) #2 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 01:23:26 PM EST
Best to learn the phrase "yes dear" and use it a lot.

I like my ring.  It has interwoven bands of rose, green and blue gold.
---
[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman


Rings by Herring (4.00 / 1) #3 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 01:33:42 PM EST
Ours are all platinum from back when we weren't skint. Come to think of it, maybe in my files is still ...
There it is

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year


Titanium? by marvin (4.00 / 1) #4 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:04:24 PM EST
http://www.titaniumrings.com/

Talked on the bus a few times with a young guy who works there.



Thought about it by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #5 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:16:27 PM EST
I had a titanium watch which I liked, but it actually scratches very easily/visibly if it has a shiny surface. Lots of the rings have a rough surface to stop that though.
--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]

Titanium by Herring (4.00 / 1) #8 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:22:52 PM EST
Hmm, nice

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

I call and raise by anonimouse (4.00 / 1) #14 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 03:56:17 PM EST
Even Nicer

Girls come and go but a mortgage is for 25 years -- JtL
[ Parent ]

Not really by Herring (4.00 / 1) #17 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 05:25:03 PM EST
I reckon the Enigma (A has one) can go 100+ miles on just cake.

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

Without photographic evidence by anonimouse (4.00 / 1) #20 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:10:11 PM EST
I cannot decide whether A+bike+cake > SR71

Girls come and go but a mortgage is for 25 years -- JtL
[ Parent ]

A is far too old for you by Herring (4.00 / 1) #21 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:47:48 PM EST
She's an adult.

ambrosen and Vulch have met her.

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

She would be rubbish company by ambrosen (4.00 / 1) #24 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 08:28:11 PM EST
On a trip to find secret military installations in the Siberian tundra.

However, the SR 71 is a little too high maintenance for a 40-80 mile a day B&B tour of the Highlands.

[ Parent ]

Yes by anonimouse (2.00 / 0) #28 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 08:22:06 AM EST
But an SR71 can complete the whole journey in substantially less than a day...and you're not knackered afterwards.

Girls come and go but a mortgage is for 25 years -- JtL
[ Parent ]

Yeah, but by Herring (4.00 / 1) #29 Wed Jun 13, 2012 at 11:04:23 AM EST
you have to wear ridiculous clothing in the SR71.

Deep Blue/In ’97 I voted for you/As Sports Personality of the Year
[ Parent ]

I have palladium by gzt (4.00 / 1) #7 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 02:18:01 PM EST
Had it for 2.5 years, sure, it looks a little dull at times, but it's got a shine and it looks nice. It's also nice that it's a little harder than gold.



white gold by sasquatchan (4.00 / 1) #13 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 03:43:57 PM EST
have had mine for 14 years, it's still white gold. No yellowing or other patina developing or wearing off.



Gatz... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #18 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 05:48:24 PM EST
 6 hours spread across 8 hours.

Definitely amazing.

I recommend it.




The minimum income marriage thing by Oberon (4.00 / 1) #19 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 06:09:52 PM EST
I saw that on Saturday. It's just horrific.

I half wonder if they're doing it knowing that it'll be shot down by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR articles 8 and 12, possibly 14 will apply). Then they'll have something else to blame the rest of Europe for ....

How now, mad spirit?


Logistics by jimgon (4.00 / 1) #22 Mon Jun 11, 2012 at 07:42:44 PM EST
Wal-mart is attributed with dragging the American distribution industion into the 21st century be requiring everyone to use EDI.  For all the bad Wal-mart has done they've done a lot of good. 




---------------
Technician - "We can't even get decent physical health care. Mental health is like witchcraft here."


That was the Sixties. We had Reagan and AIDS. | 45 comments (45 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback

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