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By ucblockhead (Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 04:59:47 PM EST) (all tags)
...and griefing update.


I'll give anyone 4-1 odds that Obama wins for any sane amount of money.

Not 5-1, though even some people now say that's a sane bet.

I'll take 100-1 on Dianne Feinstein, though.

I'm most worried about the propositions.  If California proposition 30 doesn't pass, my wife's district will have to decide between having 15-20 furlough days a year, or increasing class size to 35.  Her opinion is that the furlough days are better for the kids but parents will probably go ballistic about having to find someone to watch their kids.  Frankly, I'd happily trade the money she'd lose for having someone home to do stuff more days out of the year.

I don't think it will pass.  Because of the idiotic 2/3rds rule, it needs 67% of the vote.  It's getting 64%, so there's still hope I suppose.

I think what's really gone with the backlash against Nate Silver is that it's taking away their ability to portray every election as a toss-up.  It's that even a close election can still not be a toss-up.

My suspicion is that this is all about the combination of the 2000 election and the Internet.  It was 2000 that showed how utterly important the battleground states where.  This led to more detailed and continuous state polling.  This polling, combined with the ability of amateurs with knowledge had led is to where we are headed: where campaigns are no longer about election day, but are about jockeying for position with the result essentially known before votes are cast.

We could fix this, of course.  Dump the electoral college, and suddenly things become harder to predict again.

Minecraft griefing

I talked to the admin and found out exactly what the kid did.  He mined some stone that turned out to be the back side of someone's house, panicked, and hoped no one would notice.  It was an easy mistake because from where he was, it wasn't obviously built.  It pleases me that it wasn't maliciousness, just carelessness.

Movies

"Wreck-it Ralph" is amusing, and shows that Lasseter seems to have brought something to the table for Disney.  It's not a classic, though.

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Shocking election prediction! | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
The exact electoral college is problematic... by gzt (2.00 / 0) #1 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:33:43 PM EST
...but I do like having some way of "compartmentalizing" potential failures in the electoral process. Also, in a purely popular vote, there's a danger of becoming entirely about GTVO in CA and NY vs Texas or whatever. the nightmare of a florida-style recount across the entire nation is horrible to conceive,  hence the desire for compartmentalization in some way.

It is true... by ucblockhead (2.00 / 0) #3 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:02:04 PM EST
that candidates likely wouldn't fuck around with places like New Hampshire and Iowa and it could easily become a California and New York show.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
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the electoral college favors republicans. by the mariner (4.00 / 1) #6 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:56:29 PM EST
their strength is in low population shit holes. who's going to be better at getting out the vote in a national popular vote system? a party whose voters are concentrated in like 1% of the land area of the country or the one whose base drives fifty miles to work every morning or live in shanty towns in the mountains and/or marshes?

i don't believe for a second that republicans would be viable in a system where the higher you run up the score in new york, chicago, philadelphia, san francisco, los angeles, etc. the more likely you are to win. 


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I'm not convinced by lm (2.00 / 0) #7 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:04:41 PM EST
GWB won the popular vote once inarguably and twice arguably. Odds are good that the spread in the popular vote tomorrow will be pretty small.

It could be that this is at least partly a function of people who don't care in large "safe" states for Democrats.

But even where I live, in one of the bluest counties of Maryland, there are still a number of Romney/Ryan signs up.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
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uhm... by ucblockhead (2.00 / 0) #9 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 08:47:32 PM EST
That GWB lost the popular vote in 2000 isn't an arguable position.  He had half a million fewer votes than Gore.   No recount is likely to have changed that.

But yeah...in my estimation the electoral college is favoring Obama this year.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman

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Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking by lm (2.00 / 0) #17 Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:09:34 AM EST
As of this morning, Republicans have not won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
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there's a senate effect by gzt (2.00 / 0) #8 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 07:58:32 PM EST
remove the effective +2 bonus, it becomes probably fairly proportional. i'm in favor of reform like that.

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I think it was during the GHWB administration by wumpus (2.00 / 0) #10 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:31:17 PM EST
that there were serious attempts to claim the Republicans had a lock on the electoral college. It also makes any shenanigans vastly more visible (even if democratic officials refuse to do anything about it), as you only have to watch 1-3 states closely and about 10 (total) at all. It doesn't matter how much you stuff ballot boxes in Texas and Massachusetts (where you really aren't going to get officials from both sides), it isn't going to change anything.

Of all the things that are broken in US politics, I wouldn't include the electoral college it in (exception, one civics teacher thought that having the mob take electoral electors hostage would make a good movie plot.

wumpus

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hm, ya, usually when i get banned by the mariner (2.00 / 0) #2 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 05:52:23 PM EST
the explanation is something like "he's an asshole/hacker." honestly, admins are just too sensitive about getting airshot and being accused of being "terrible at this game." i guess minecraft is a more domestic.


knowing math... by gzt (2.00 / 0) #4 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:22:33 PM EST
...means you're one of those hacker kids with leet skills and what-have-you.

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i don't hack! by the mariner (4.00 / 1) #5 Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 06:31:44 PM EST
it just looks like i do to bads.

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polling by aphrael (2.00 / 0) #11 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 04:51:27 AM EST
> where campaigns are no longer about election day, but are about jockeying for position with the result essentially known before votes are cast.

Isaac Asimov wrote a short story about polling which got to the point where a computer could extrapolate the election results by interviewing a single voter.
If television is a babysitter, the internet is a drunk librarian who won't shut up.

Heh. by Breaker (2.00 / 0) #12 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:55:27 AM EST
It's true though, I read it in the Mash!


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US Election Results by Herring (2.00 / 0) #13 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:49:58 AM EST
Well, we'll know soon. I'm sure it will have worked its way through the courts by the end of December anyway.

christ, we're all old now - StackyMcRacky
Eleven year old really wants to see Wreck-It Ralph by georgeha (2.00 / 0) #14 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:23:40 AM EST
and got upset when our weekend was way too busy. Something in the trailer really got her.


Take her! by ucblockhead (2.00 / 0) #15 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:28:23 AM EST
My son loved it.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
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It's a time and money thing, too by georgeha (2.00 / 0) #16 Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:50:50 AM EST
We're very busy until the Lego Robotics qualifier on 11/17, Mrs. Ha lost one job, and my Oregon trip won't be reimbursed until 11/15.


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Shocking election prediction! | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback