Not 5-1, though even some people now say that's a sane bet.
I'll take 100-1 on Dianne Feinstein, though.
I'm most worried about the propositions. If California proposition 30 doesn't pass, my wife's district will have to decide between having 15-20 furlough days a year, or increasing class size to 35. Her opinion is that the furlough days are better for the kids but parents will probably go ballistic about having to find someone to watch their kids. Frankly, I'd happily trade the money she'd lose for having someone home to do stuff more days out of the year.
I don't think it will pass. Because of the idiotic 2/3rds rule, it needs 67% of the vote. It's getting 64%, so there's still hope I suppose.
I think what's really gone with the backlash against Nate Silver is that it's taking away their ability to portray every election as a toss-up. It's that even a close election can still not be a toss-up.
My suspicion is that this is all about the combination of the 2000 election and the Internet. It was 2000 that showed how utterly important the battleground states where. This led to more detailed and continuous state polling. This polling, combined with the ability of amateurs with knowledge had led is to where we are headed: where campaigns are no longer about election day, but are about jockeying for position with the result essentially known before votes are cast.
We could fix this, of course. Dump the electoral college, and suddenly things become harder to predict again.
I talked to the admin and found out exactly what the kid did. He mined some stone that turned out to be the back side of someone's house, panicked, and hoped no one would notice. It was an easy mistake because from where he was, it wasn't obviously built. It pleases me that it wasn't maliciousness, just carelessness.
"Wreck-it Ralph" is amusing, and shows that Lasseter seems to have brought something to the table for Disney. It's not a classic, though.
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