Print Story 2010 UK Election Prediction
Politics
By TheophileEscargot (Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:31:22 PM EST) Politics (all tags)
UK Polling Report has the last permitted polls. BBC has a Seat Calculator.

My prediction of vote share: Conservative 35%, Labour 28%, Liberal Democrats 26%.
Seats: Conservative 279, Labour 263, Lib Dem 79

Poll: Your prediction?

Update [2010-5-6 6:32:15 by TheophileEscargot]: Table of final polls.



Overall: Hung Parliament, Conservatives largest party, Clegg able to join either party as a coalition

Basis: mostly the averages of the last polls. But I reckon some of the new Lib Dem support must be soft, so I'm guessing 1% are going to stay in bed, and 1% are going to go back to Labour.

Update [2010-5-6 6:27:38 by TheophileEscargot]:
Here's all the last opinion polls from before the moratorium, with uniform swing predictions of seats.

It takes 326 seats to make a majority. On the Conservatives' best poll Angus Reid, they have 312 and a Lib-Lab pact would have only 309, which basically gives the Cons either a minority governent or coalition if they feel like it.

On the Conservatives' worst poll, TNS, they're only 3 seats behind Labour. A Lib-Con pact would have 358 seats, a Lib-Lab pact 361: either would be possible.

Of course, uniform swing projections aren't actually a very accurate way to work out seats from percentages. But no other method is clearly and definitely better.

LastNight2010electionPolls

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2010 UK Election Prediction | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Write in Vote(s): by duxup (2.00 / 0) #1 Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:34:45 PM EST
1. Tea and Crumpets
2. Monarchy retakes power, nobody notices.

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Arguably by dmg (4.00 / 1) #7 Wed May 05, 2010 at 05:08:26 PM EST
Monarchy does not need to 're' take power since it is the supreme power in the UK. (although Barosso might try to disagree). 
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dmg - HuSi's most dimwitted overprivileged user.
[ Parent ]
It seems to me by garlic (2.00 / 0) #18 Thu May 06, 2010 at 08:58:31 AM EST
if the queen tried to exert her 'power' you would have a revolt right quick.

On the other hand, if she did it slowly by steps, you might act like the slowly boiling frogs.


[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure. by dmg (2.00 / 0) #19 Thu May 06, 2010 at 07:08:43 PM EST
I think most UKians secretly support the Monarchy (I know I do). Its kind of like the 'father figure' that will step in if the children get out of line. There's a lot to be said for elitism. At least a non-comprehensive school educated person might stand a chance grappling with the complexities of running a modern state.
 
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dmg - HuSi's most dimwitted overprivileged user.
[ Parent ]
you might be right by garlic (4.00 / 1) #20 Thu May 06, 2010 at 08:06:24 PM EST
very american of me to presume you'd overthrow it instead of welcome it back with open arms.


[ Parent ]
We know our place... by dmg (2.00 / 0) #21 Thu May 06, 2010 at 08:42:56 PM EST
 
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dmg - HuSi's most dimwitted overprivileged user.
[ Parent ]
I have no reason to stray from... by Metatone (2.00 / 0) #2 Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:37:48 PM EST
the Poll of Polls, rationally.

I fear the Tories are stronger in the marginals and will get to 315 or so...

BBC Poll of polls? by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #3 Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:43:59 PM EST
That's Con 35%, Lan 29%, Lib Dem 26% at the moment. I'm not sure how far back it looks.

Guardian has an anti-Tory Tactical Voting Guide naming constituencies.

I've gone with uniform swing, assuming that tactical voting with counterbalance the Ashcroft money, mainly because I don't see a way to work out the effects of either.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
UK Polling Report 35/28/27 C/L/LD (n/t) by Metatone (2.00 / 0) #4 Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:54:47 PM EST
 

[ Parent ]
Aha by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #5 Wed May 05, 2010 at 04:56:24 PM EST
That's only got data up to May 4th at the moment, but doubt it will change much.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
Marginals are tricky... by Metatone (2.00 / 0) #6 Wed May 05, 2010 at 05:06:26 PM EST
 but if I hold to my usual contempt for the mass of people, then I have to suspect that the Ashcroft money will have a big impact...

[ Parent ]
People supposedly lie more often by dmg (4.00 / 1) #8 Wed May 05, 2010 at 05:14:12 PM EST
About their intention to vote Conservative, than they do about their intention to vote  for any of the other pro-capitalist pro-war pro-EU parties. Probably because (rightly or wrongly) it is seen as 'uncool'. So I don't think things are as bad as they might seem for the Tories. Also many older Labour voters have woken up to the fact that the current Labour party is not the party they and their parents used to vote for. (i.e. they are not Socialists).

It's too close to call. But if I were a betting person, I would say the end resuly will be Clegg coming to some arrangement with Camoron. Labour is just so discredited now, that the LibDems would have to be insane to get tainted by association.
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dmg - HuSi's most dimwitted overprivileged user.
(Comment Deleted) by xth (2.00 / 0) #13 Wed May 05, 2010 at 06:44:27 PM EST

This comment has been deleted by xth



[ Parent ]
Hmmm. by dmg (2.00 / 0) #14 Wed May 05, 2010 at 08:33:30 PM EST
The majority of Tories are also against ongoing EU membership, however that doesn't seem to worry Camoron, so I don't think 'what the party thinks' will be a stumbling block if it is politically expedient to do a deal with Clegg. There's also the very real possibility of factionalization of the Labour and Conservative parties. It's going to get very interesting.

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dmg - HuSi's most dimwitted overprivileged user.
[ Parent ]
The pollsters seem to think by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #15 Thu May 06, 2010 at 02:09:42 AM EST
That they can correct for the Shy Tory effect now. They now assume a certain proportion of don't-knows will vote for either the party they previously voted for, or the party they're leaning towards.

Not sure if they really can, or if they're actually over-correcting for it.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
Prediction: by komet (4.00 / 2) #9 Wed May 05, 2010 at 05:22:18 PM EST
No matter who gets in, people will not start dying in the streets, spontaneously speak in German whilst waving their ID cards around, or flood the market with counterfeit non-organic burqas.

Seats: CONservative 291, lASBOur 258, liberal deMOCK RATS 71. CON and LAB both crowd the left side of the House during the first day, LD on opposition benches. Bercow still Speaker. Gordon tries to hang on for ages. Everyone in Labour publically supports Brown. Eventually he is removed and Cameron forms a government. Everyone on the Labour front bench suddenly saying what a cunt Gordon was. Even Ed Balls.

The following phrases will be heard several times during the next week:

"I take full responsibility"
"the good of the country"
"get on with the job"
"restore the people's faith in politics"

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<ni> komet: You are functionally illiterate as regards trashy erotica.

what would you make a non-organic burka of? by R343L (4.00 / 1) #10 Wed May 05, 2010 at 05:45:33 PM EST
Chainmail?

"There will be time, there will be time / To prepare a face to meet the faces that you meet." -- Eliot
[ Parent ]
You forgot by anonimouse (4.00 / 2) #16 Thu May 06, 2010 at 04:39:42 AM EST
"Spend more time with my family"


Girls come and go but a mortgage is for 25 years -- JtL
[ Parent ]
My vote by johnny (2.00 / 0) #11 Wed May 05, 2010 at 06:33:41 PM EST
I have no idea whatsoever.

I just voted at random so I could see the poll results.

She has effectively checked out. She's an un-person of her own making. So it falls to me.--ad hoc (in the hole)

(Comment Deleted) by xth (4.00 / 1) #12 Wed May 05, 2010 at 06:37:43 PM EST

This comment has been deleted by xth



Only thing I can add by nebbish (2.00 / 0) #17 Thu May 06, 2010 at 04:42:14 AM EST
Is that it seems there is a high turnout today. It's the first time I've ever queued to vote and a couple of friends have said the same.

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It's political correctness gone mad!

2010 UK Election Prediction | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback