Basis: mostly the averages of the last polls. But I reckon some of the new Lib Dem support must be soft, so I'm guessing 1% are going to stay in bed, and 1% are going to go back to Labour.
Update [2010-5-6 6:27:38 by TheophileEscargot]:
Here's all the last opinion polls from before the moratorium, with uniform swing predictions of seats.
It takes 326 seats to make a majority. On the Conservatives' best poll Angus Reid, they have 312 and a Lib-Lab pact would have only 309, which basically gives the Cons either a minority governent or coalition if they feel like it.
On the Conservatives' worst poll, TNS, they're only 3 seats behind Labour. A Lib-Con pact would have 358 seats, a Lib-Lab pact 361: either would be possible.
Of course, uniform swing projections aren't actually a very accurate way to work out seats from percentages. But no other method is clearly and definitely better.
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