Print Story Black Swans
In which I consider chessboxing. In which I mention Nassim Taleb and Hume. In which I discuss stuff and things. And Russian coffee girls.


I watched "Spearhead from Space" last night, Jon Pertwee's first serial as Doctor Who. It introduced the Autons. It was good fun. I don't think I'll do that much more, I have an exam in 7 weeks. I'm supposed to study about 200 hours for it. I haven't studied at all yet.

I was wheezing a bit on this morning's run, so I cut it short and went home. The second I stopped running I couldn't get back up above a walk. I may have to check in with the doctor about this. I haven't had asthma problems in a couple years, I may need to go back on medication.

After seeing an article about a recent chessboxing match, I've considered taking it up. I have no boxing experience and some chess experience. Why not? It seems like a fun enough sport. I'd get in good shape. I like chess.

I very much enjoyed Nassim Taleb's article here: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html I usually detest The Edge, but Taleb's a cool guy, so I made an exception and read his article. I don't actually have a strong enough background in probability to follow all of his assertions, but I have a good enough understanding to catch the drift. I think he's way cool, it sort of reminds me of Hume's assertion that there's no good philosophical reason to make assumptions about the future based on the past. I also enjoy how he points out the difference between statisticians and charlatans, noting that most economists are charlatans. That's my experience of hanging out with economists as a mathematician, really, and sort of why I disliked the economists I was grading so much. They always struck me as the sort to learn enough maths to get a job at a hedge fund and then just trust it. But they forget, or never even learn, that maths are ANTI-TELHARSIC. They assume that the past is an appropriate model for the future, and that their mathematical model captures all the salient details of their dynamically-hedged portfolio. Answer: wrong! The tails are fat.

I walked by the coffee shop. Russian coffee girl was there. Looks like they're continuing the occupation even after the cease-fire.

Great, a lot of these major players going into default and such were the sort of people I was hoping would employ me. Bloody hell.

I have seven weeks before that exam in... dynamic hedging. Bloody hell. Friggin' derivative markets.

Anyways, I made it so that instead of running 8 stored procedures, conveniently numbered 1-8 in the order they are to be run, this one user can just run one that runs all eight of them. I had originally done it the first way because, sometimes, you might occasionally want to do something between #3 and #4, but I decided that was rare enough that it was really better to do it all in one. The peasants rejoice! This also means less possibility for user error, so I think everybody wins. I like winning. I like you, too. So when I tell you that I love you, don't test my love, accept my love, don't test my love, 'cause maybe I don't like you all that much.

No coffee today.

< on being alive | Mmmm. Electronicy! >
Black Swans | 4 comments (4 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
economists as mathematician, derivatives by georgeha (2.00 / 0) #1 Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:09:51 AM EST
Are you one those quant sorts who responsible for the subprime mess?


No, I think those people are idiots. by gzt (4.00 / 1) #2 Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 08:43:49 AM EST
Or greedy and soulless. It's hard to tell whether it's malice or stupidity. I'm just some sort of person who does analysis unrelated to the stock market but is looking to move into something related to risk management in insurance, which is unfortunately becoming more like what's bringing AIG down.

[ Parent ]
Carry on then by georgeha (4.00 / 1) #3 Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 09:11:53 AM EST
my guess based on a superficial understanding is greed, make millions now on derivatives, make millions on sub prime loans and hope they stay solvent.


[ Parent ]
It's like Musical Chairs by Breaker (2.00 / 0) #4 Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 10:50:55 PM EST
Or Pass The Parcel. 

You're fucked when the music stops.


[ Parent ]
Black Swans | 4 comments (4 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback