Print Story Gangster, gangster
Diary
By TheophileEscargot (Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:28:25 PM EST) Reading, Me, MLP (all tags)
Reading: "Gang Leader for a Day". Me. Economy. Web.


What I'm Reading
Finished Gang Leader for a Day: A Rogue Sociologist Crosses the Line by Sudhir Venkatesh. Excellent book.

Noticed the US version is less radically subtitled "A Rogue Sociologist Takes to the Streets". Seems to me that he definitely crossed professional lines though. Like the early sociologists at his University of Chicago ("Chicago School" means something different in sociology) Venkatesh became heavily involved in the life of the Chicago underclass in the Nineties, and with gang leader "J.T." in particular.

Has a fascinating depiction of life in the projects. The gangs there had essentially taken on the roles of the civic authorities: extracting tax from the illicit businesses, settling disputes, and organizing almost all aspects of life there. The police are depicted as distant and corrupt, chiefly interested shaking down gang members for cash and valuable. Building managers are heavily involved with the gangs, and one is depicted as running her own networks of patronage.

It's hinted that official politics is tied in with the gangs and bribery as in the Wire, but Venkatesh never manages to penetrate those networks.

The book is also compellingly written: this is the only non-fiction book in years that I've stayed up late to finish in one sitting.

Well worth reading.

Extract, extract, review, review, review, review, interview, interview.

Me
As I mentioned before, they've decided to inter my grandmother's ashes with her family in Gunnersbury ("Kensington") cemetery on 11th April. I thought this was a bad idea since I'm the only living relative anywhere near: would have been better in Bristol where more of the family live now. Didn't think it was worth fighting though, especially given the squabbling over the will.

It's not very accessible to anyone though. It's on the outskirts of London, hard to get to, surrounded by a wasteland of industrial estates and motorways. My mother's now decided the only nearby hotel is too expensive; I've got no space to put anyone up: it all seems to be turning into a organizational nightmare.

Depressed by the whole thing.

Economy and the Great Depression
So. The economic cycle has not ceased to exist. After an exceptionally long expansionary phase, we're probably moving into some sort of contractionary phase.

However, the length of the expansion does not necessarily imply a particularly long contraction. It's not possible to predict when the contraction will start or stop. But there's no reason to think that there's anything particularly unusual about it.

The difference this time is that we now have an increasingly hysterical blogosphere, media and general public. This seems to me to be being manipulated by bankers and traders looking for government bailouts. The chief way that they're doing this is by making comparisons with the Great Depression of the Thirties.

Now the characteristics of the Great Depression were:
1. A shortage of money. This led to:
2. Deflation.

This means if you're a banker looking to get your hands on free money, it's a good thing to bleat about. The Great Depression should have been dealt with by putting more money into circulation. (And eventually was, by abandoning the gold standard).

However, the situation we're in at the moment is almost the exact opposite. For years now, the government has put too much money in circulation. This was lent out by the banks to people who couldn't afford to pay it back. What we have had over the last few years is:
1. Too much money around. This is leading to:
2. Moderate inflation.

So, comparing the current situation to the Great Depression is a good way for bankers to campaign for free money from the government. But the current reality doesn't really look much like it to me.

YouTube
Wooden adding machine (3min)

Arthur C. Clarke's last birthday message (9min)

Web
Lore: Science vs Religion.

London most expensive city.

Economics: GDP per head figures.

Tech. Joel on web standards. Response, response. How the 1985 BBC globe worked.

Junk food ad bans not justified.

< You can't make this stuff up. | Behold the glory that is cheese! >
Gangster, gangster | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Economy by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #1 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:34:28 PM EST
My big concern is that because this is happening during an election cycle, and one that is more important than others in many respects, a lot of people in political power are going to be tempted to push off problems for a year when possible rather than doing anything actively constructive.
----
ウセーバラケダ


Regarding the election year by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #4 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:51:39 PM EST
I'd be more worried about other things.

1. The banks holding off on lending out any money until the election, to see how much bailout they can screw out of the government.

2. Panic measures from politicians making things worse.

I think at least we lucked out in the UK in terms of the electoral cycle.
--
"Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." -- Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

Minor point by MohammedNiyalSayeed (4.00 / 1) #2 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:42:41 PM EST

Sudhir Venkatesh hails from University of Chicago. There isn't a school actually named "Chicago University". It may seem trivial, but the UofC name probably makes it a bit easier to distinguish between the actual school and the school of thought that is the "Chicago school" of sociology. If, in fact, we are to accept that sociology is an actual science, which I'm on the fence about.


-
You can build the most elegant fountain in the world, but eventually a winged rat will be using it as a drinking bowl.


OK, edited [nt] by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #3 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 03:45:36 PM EST

--
"Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." -- Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

sociology by Merekat (4.00 / 1) #12 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 04:42:08 AM EST
Having studied it for 4 years, I'm pretty sure sociology isn't a science. However, it is a useful and interesting way to tackle studying other things that are not scientific either.

[ Parent ]

Rogue commenter leaves remark! by Christopher Robin was Murdered (4.00 / 3) #5 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 04:43:40 PM EST
With some many rogues around, it makes one wonder if anybody still, I don't know, teaches classes and the like. That's probably not cool enough to land you a book deal - not unless you do it real roguishly, I imagine.

I hope this spreads to every intellectual discipline. I can see it now: I've Got Your Moby Dick Right Here: Rogue American Literature Scholar Specializing in the Nineteenth Century Crosses the Line and Dewey Can Suck It: Rogue Master of Library Science Destroys Everything You Though You Knew About Shelving. It will truly be a golden age of learning.



Depends by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #6 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 05:49:49 PM EST
Not sure how many assaults, drug deals and other crimes a literature or library science professor can really be an accessory to. If they can work it in somewhere I suppose they could probably claim the "rogue" title too.
--
"Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." -- Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

Dude wouldn't last one second in the Stax. by Christopher Robin was Murdered (4.00 / 5) #7 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 06:05:55 PM EST
'Cause when a librarian comes heavy, a librarian comes hard.

Peace out.

[ Parent ]

Memoir or study? by LinDze (4.00 / 1) #8 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:19:54 PM EST
So is it more of a memoir or an actual study of the society of the gangs and tenements?

-Lin Dze
Arbeit Macht Frei


The book itself isn't a scientific study by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #11 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 03:25:30 AM EST
He did produce actual research from his work, but this book basically just summarizes it.
--
"Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise." -- Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

Depression by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #9 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 07:53:04 PM EST
I've never seriously read up on the period, hey this is the internet, but I think the analogy is mainly based on the collapse in asset prices and the bank failures. You're right about inflation / deflation, but that won't necessarily prevent a severe crunch, with Japan in the 90s being the nearest analogy.

Ben Bernanke is a serious student of the Great Depression, which gives me confidence that in this case we will learn from history and find new and innovative ways to fuck the economy. Actually he's already trying a new theory out by running such a loose monetary policy for the last few years. Wonder if that has anything to do with the asset mispricing and the massive amounts of debt people managed to accumulate?

The Political Science Department of the University of Woolloomooloo



The cycle: by spacejack (4.00 / 3) #10 Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 09:32:56 PM EST
  1. People ignore the advice "live within your means."
  2. Companies get rich quick providing ways for people to live beyond their means.
  3. Everyone learns a hard lesson.
  4. The next generation ingores their parents' advice to "live within your means."
It's possible that this is as good as it gets.



Perhaps we could abandon the dollar standard by Rogerborg (4.00 / 2) #13 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 05:20:31 AM EST
Just let everyone print their own fiat currency.  I'm moving my funds into Hallidubloons.

-
Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.


Economy by Herring (4.00 / 1) #14 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 05:32:09 AM EST
I'm not absolutely convinced that there is a lot of money about. A lot of it seemed to be backed by property which is now magically worth a lot less than it was (so money has, effectively, vanished). On the other hand, the banks going begging to the BofE would support the hypothesis that they are greedy, unprincipled bastards but I think that was a given.

Inflation: well, how much of that is down to oil price and how much of that is down to "real" supply/demand (as opposed to speculation)? If you remove the effects of oil price (which is difficult as it affects the price of a lot of other things) then how much inflation is actually left? Of course, it's not just oil - metals and other commodities are still expensive (allegedly due to demand from far-east manufacturing).

When my grandfather became ill, my grandmother rubbed goose-fat into his back. He went downhill quite quickly after that. - Milton Jones


and food by LinDze (4.00 / 2) #15 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 06:51:16 AM EST
Basic food commodities have increased sharply in the last few years. The Economist shows food as a whole up 46% for '07. Wheat, as an example, doubled over the couirse of 2007.

Corns had a nice jump too. Originally $2/bushel in '06-'07 it was $4/bu end of last year. USDA says were going from 19% to 25% used of the crop for ethanol. Oh, and were going from 93.5 million acres to 90 million planted this year. Its a bit of a pet peeve but the US is going to be using more corn for ethanol this coming year than total corn exports. Of course $7 billion a year in ethanol subsidies ($1.70/gallon) might explain some of that.

Food commodities, as a whole, are up about 75% since 2005 in real terms. This is news in that its the first time since the 70s that food prices havnt dropped year on year. In china food commodities are up about 23% in the last year, mostly concentrated in meat and dairy with them being up 50%. As I recall china now consumes 50% of the worlds pork production. I also seem to recall that food prices added another 2% to chinas inflation rate this last year.

-Lin Dze
Arbeit Macht Frei
[ Parent ]

Commodity prices by R Mutt (2.00 / 0) #16 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 07:08:19 AM EST
Can be raised by low interest rates: see here and here.

Basically: government lowers interest rates to bail out banks/markets. So, you can't earn much interest by putting your money in the bank. So, you put your money in commodities instead. So, commodity prices rise.

[ Parent ]

I can dig it. by LinDze (2.00 / 0) #21 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 04:22:00 PM EST
Although I certainly wouldnt discount emerging market usage as a drive for higher prices. Per capita meat consumption in china has risen 150% in the last 20 years. Increase the ethanol fiasco and theres some serious pressure on grain production. For industrial commodities I believe theyre basically at full utilization even with record outputs every year. Specifically common metals like copper and iron.

There also seems to be some correlation between an increase in the real price of food and depression. There was a sizable blip in food prices around 1925-35, then flat until the early '70s. There was something like a 10x increase in price, then its been dropping for 20 years. Now theres another huge jump and were almost back to the peak of the 70s.

-Lin Dze
Arbeit Macht Frei
[ Parent ]

Intelligent economic analysis there by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #17 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 07:21:59 AM EST
Thanks, I've been looking for something like that amongst all the hysteria.

"Gang Leader for a Day" looks fascinating. I remember from my sociology days that the Chicago School was quite a right-wing institution, still the case?

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!


I didn't think by R Mutt (2.00 / 0) #18 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 08:20:43 AM EST
The Sociology Chicago School was particularly right wing. The Economics Chicago School is pretty right-wing though.

[ Parent ]

Ah by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #19 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:29:20 AM EST
I think I've confused the two...

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

easy mistake by Merekat (4.00 / 2) #20 Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:49:27 AM EST
Even the US left looks kinda right to me...

[ Parent ]

Gangster, gangster | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback