Print Story Attack of the Money printers II
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By cam (Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:39:29 AM EST) (all tags)
John Barrdear identifies four issues with the US Fed when asking are US policy makers panicking?


Barrdear's take:

1) The Fed is not as independent as central banks in other countries are. Greg Mankiw may not like it, but the fact is that both Congress and the Whitehouse actively seek to influence monetary policy in the United States. ...

2) The Fed is mandated to keep both inflation and unemployment low. By comparison, the other major central banks are only required to focus on inflation. When they do look at unemployment, it plays lexicographic second fiddle to keeping inflation in check. At the Fed, they are compelled to take unemployment into account at the same time as looking at inflation.

3) The banking and finance system is central to the real economy. Without a ready supply of credit to worthy and profitable ventures, economic growth would slow dramatically, if not cease altogether. Although it creates a clear moral hazard when bankers’ pay is not aligned with real economic outcomes, this - combined with the first two points - implies that the so-called “Bernanke put” is probably, to some extent, real.

4) The latest GDP numbers and IMF forecasts were released in between the two rate cuts. I have nothing to back this up, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to discover that the Fed gets (or got) a preview of those numbers. Seeing that markets were already tanking, knowing that the reports would send them tumbling further, perhaps believing that they might already be in a recession, almost certainly fearing that the negative news, if released before the Fed had acted, might send risk premia skywards again and recognising that what they needed was a massive cut of at least 100bp, perhaps the Fed concluded that the best policy was to split the cut over two meeting, making a smaller but still unusually large cut before the reports were released to ensure that they didn’t trigger more credit-crunchiness and a second one after in notional “response.”

One of the issues is the political nature of the Fed. Reserve banks were depoliticised as it was realised that many of the bad economic policies were political in origin, "ie it is the economy stupid". Zimbabwe is the current poster child for bad political economic policies. The political nature of the US fed ties it to political outcomes and leads to inferior economic decisions.

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Politics make it worse faster, by vorheesleatherface (2.00 / 0) #1 Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 11:41:01 AM EST
but fractional banking is still the root of the problem. Politically motivated rate cuts just encourage inflation while spreading a bit more money around. It is just a temporary solution. sure, the fed is smart to psych people out so there isn't a counterproductive credit crunch, but encouraging and perpetuating fractional-reserve banking means that we'll catch up to the rate cut eventually and be in the same boat all over again. I wonder how long we can keep it up. Overall I agree, speeding up inevitable inflation is a bad decision, it should be slowed, and politicians seem to only think of the short term. Thing is, a big government that has control of its citizens needs money to keep operating, and needs to be in control of the money, and demonstrate control, in order to stay in power. That is how it works. Money and power go hand in hand so the bank is the government and the government is the bank. If you try to have one not be the other, it will become both as a matter of necessity. The fed, our central bank, is just another arm of the government. It was bold of the founding fathers to try to separate the two but as democracy is stealthily perverted into something else, the two merge further. Maybe this is why our government is described as an experiment. The creators said, go do this, but never had any idea how. Money is power. Money is government. Anyone who can figure out how to seperate the two and keep them that way will be the most famous person in history because they will give freedom to the entire population. Meanwhile, accepting the fact that the two are tied together, it would be nice to eliminate some stupidity and back our money up with something real. Of course, it would be harder for government to steal it that way, wouldn't it?

"Of course. I goatse my MP once a week!" - Hulver


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