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By TheophileEscargot (Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 02:44:58 PM EST) Reading, Watching, MLP (all tags)
Reading: "Against Intellectual Monopoly". Watching: "Primer", "Ratatouille". Is finance the new coal? Web.


What I'm Reading
Finished Against Intellectual Monopoly by Michele Boldrin and David K. Levine, which I mentioned before. It's a book by two economists, making an economic case against patents and copyrights, but aimed at the general reader Available free online.

While I've seen a fair amount of evidence that current IP laws are too expensive, this is the first time I've seen a plausible economic case that copyright and patents should be abolished completely.

The basic theory behind intellectual property law is that it has a cost and a benefit. The benefit is that is an incentive to create new works and ideas. The cost is that these items literally cost more to the consumer, since he can only buy from a monopoly provider. If the overall benefit outweighs the overall cost, then the law is a good idea.

The book adds more complexity to this theoretical picture. Since inventions build on other inventions, patent laws can actually stifle innovation, as you cannot so easily build on or improve someone else's work. Even without laws, first mover advantage still gives an incentive to innovate. These factors change the balance somewhat. Boldrin and Levine admit that if patent and copyright laws are abolished original creators will suffer somewhat, but that this will be outweighed by the greater good.

If that argument was purely theoretical, it would be worthless. But the fascinating thing about this book is that they find a great deal of empirical evidence that this is true.

They look at cases like the repeated extensions of copyright terms in the last hundred years. If copyright laws really do give creators incentives to produce, they should have caused the number of works published to jump. In reality, no such thing happens. Conversely, they do show that the price of copyrighted works is much higher, by analysing in- and out-of-copyright books by the same author.

They also look at chemical industry patents from the early Twentieth century when the UK and US had patents and Germany did not: Germany dominated innovation. They compare the rush of innovation from before software could be patented, with the slower progress afterwards.

The bulk of the book is taken up with real-world evidence from a variety of situations, from the invention of the steam engine to the present. Even if some of the examples seem a little weak, the weight of evidence seems overwhelming.

The book's clearly written, though the tone gets a bit bombastic sometimes. Doesn't require any specialist knowledge. Well worth reading if you have any interest in the subject. MR review

What I'm Watching
Rented Primer on DVD: the 2004 ultra-low-budget SF movie that everyone's been raving about.

Wish I hadn't left it till the end of the rental-month to watch: could really do with seeing it again. Seemed dull at first but I ended up completely blown away by it. It's genuinely hard to follow things though: I'm pretty clued up about SF but I was barely able to figure out some of it. This is not a movie that makes any concessions to the dumb.

It is one of the very few movies I've seen where the technology (improvised garage-stuff) looks realistic, and the dialogue and the development process seem convincing too.

But it's not just technically accurate: it's genuinely creepy the way that the tension escalates and the relationship between the main characters disappears.

If you have any interest in SF at all, you have to see this movie. But don't expect to figure it out quickly.

Fortunately, while the movie doesn't favour the lazy and stupid, the Internet totally does. This diagram explains the plot, Wikipedia has more and this explains things in words. AVclub, Ebert, Peter Bradshaw reviews.

What I'm Watching 2
After liking Wall-E, thought it was worth borrowing previous Pixar Ratatouille on DVD. Not bad, fairly entertaining, but didn't really match up to instant classic Wall-E.

I think All Kinds of Stuff may have a point when he criticizes bland character designs in Pixar and other mainstream animators. I think Wall-E got away from this by taking a kind of industrial-design philosophy to the main characters. The human and animal figures of Ratatouille do seem pretty dull and characterless compared to the robots.

Is Finance the New Coal?
After reading this diary the thought came me. As codemonkey_uk points out, if you look at the long term, there is a pretty steady stream of bank failures, most of which are bailed out by the taxpayer. The accepted view is that this is necessary to protect the real economy. If normal businesses cannot borrow monkey to invest, they will start to suffer.

In effect, it seems that banking is not an independently viable business: it needs regular taxpayer support to survive.

However, even without taxpayer subsidy, it's likely that some smaller banking sector would survive. Perhaps it would be based on Islamic banking principles which seem to be less prone to credit crunches. Or stock and bond issues might substitute for some forms of capitalization.

Now thinking back, it seems to me that this is strikingly reminiscent of another industry in another period: the coal mining industry in 20th century UK.

Now just as with finance, it was argued -- and believed -- that coal mining was a unique sector, since large parts of the rest of the economy depended on the energy and heat coal produced. Therefore, coal mining needed special treatment and special subsidies. This book mentions some of the problems Chancellors faced when needing to bail nationalized coal mining out of occasional but expensive problems.

However, eventually someone turned up with enough boldness to challenge the conventional wisdom. Could it possibly be that the wider economy could survive without subsidized coal? There was only one way to find out: try it. It was a painful adjustment. But economically, the conventional wisdom was proven wrong. It turned out to be perfectly possible for the rest of the economy to survive with only unsubsidized, private sector coal.

In 1970, pretty much everyone would have thought it was essential. By 1990, almost no-one did.

So, is it time that we looked for a new Margaret Thatcher to try the bold experiment of a purely free market financial sector?

The adjustment process is likely to be painful. It may well cause a temporary recession. There will be inevitable dislocation to the workers. Thanks to their proximity to a vital resource -- coal -- Scargill-era miners were among the highest paid industrial workers in the country. After the subsidized industry failed, many of them never worked again. Yet overall for the economy, it was a good thing: we needed to adapt.

So too, their proximity to the vital resource of capital means that investment banking workers are also highly paid. So too, many of them may never work again. But sadly, in the creative destruction of capitalism, it is necessary for some to suffer.

The City of London has had a long period of prosperity: from the Big Bang of 1986 to the credit crunch of 2008. But that period may well be approaching the end of its natural life. The coal boom lasted longer, but other sectors have not. The great car-building boom only really lasted from the Fifties to the Seventies: why should the City boom last longer?

Whatever happens in America, I think over here it should be time for the financial sector to stand on its own two feet.

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Scargills in better suits? | 33 comments (33 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Patents and copyrights by ad hoc (4.00 / 2) #1 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 02:59:31 PM EST
The whole idea behind patents and copyrights, at least originally, is that they would expire after a fixed and known period of time. Incentive for the inventor/creator. Public benefit after that. The problem now is that copyrights are virtually open ended, and US patents are commonly extended with by congress (see Hatch and Claritin).

Then again, I haven't read the book.

--
The three things that make a diamond also make a waffle.


Yeah by jump the ladder (4.00 / 3) #2 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 03:03:07 PM EST
Kensington and Chelsea are the equivalent of the pit villages. In a few years all that will remain will be boarded up bistros, the local Waitrose will turn into a Lidl and you will be able to buy a whole Georgian terrace for less than an million. Meanwhile the sacked brokers will be encouarged to get on their carbon fibre mountain bikes to find work.





Your sarcasm betrays you by codemonkey uk (4.00 / 1) #8 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:30:36 PM EST
No real retort to be found here. 

--- Thad ---
developer of ... ?
[ Parent ]

Well by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #9 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:30:32 AM EST
That might be a tiny exaggeration. But they both do seem to be, or have been, subsidized industries, running at overcapacity, without strong numbers justifying the level of subsidy.

According to the BBC:

...figures published just this afternoon showed that the Bank of England's direct loans to our banks jumped £49bn in just one week - and, including the special scheme that allows the banks to swap their mortgages for Government bonds, the authorities' financial help for the banks has grown more than £200bn in the past couple of years.
Now, that's not a pure giveaway: we're getting assets in return. And it's not quite like the US bailout, I don't think the Bank of England is deliberately overpaying, and they're trying to choose good assets rather than poor ones.

But it would be quite nice to know, even as an estimate, two things: how much is this costing us, and how much is this benefiting us?

There doesn't seem to be any kind of public cost-benefit analysis: just backroom deals and dark mutterings about how an unsubsidized finance industry would be apocalyptically bad.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

The basic problem is the business model by jump the ladder (4.00 / 2) #11 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 04:11:33 AM EST
Banks borrow short term to lend long term. If everyone decides that they are too risky for whatever reason and can demand their money instantanously or they can't get access to short term money then they can't lend out to perfectly good individuals and businesses. This is what is hapenning on an industry and international scale.

The cost benefit analysis would be how much GDP a total freeze up in credit will cost us compared to bailing them out. There's is a recession already going on anyway, it's now a matter how serious and long lasting it will be. There definitely needs to be a bit of  Schumpeterian creative destruction in the banking industry but this has the danger of heading towards a great depression type situation.
 
Caveat: of course it's in my own personal interest that they bail the banks out as the investment banks are the main client for my skills. But at least my skill set is transferable to other industries. I'm worried that other industries will suffer just as much.


[ Parent ]

There are other options though by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #19 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:01:03 AM EST
Investing bail-out money in another area of the economy could be more beneficial. That's why I'm with Theophile Escargot - it needs to be assessed.

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It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Dude by jump the ladder (4.00 / 1) #21 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:45:25 AM EST
The money  to the banks doesn't dissappear into nothingness, it gets recycled into the real economy as the only way out of this mess is for the banks to profitably start lending again. The govt isn't exactly brilliant at investment decisions either as we know from the present and past, it's only that they have us tax payers to bail them out as we have no choice unlike bank creditors.
 
If the achilles heel of private finance is greed and short termism, the achilles heel of nationalisation is political expediency and economic iliteracy. Look at how hard Gordon Brown leaned on Lloyds to prevent job lossses in the scottish bit of HBOS or the PFI deals or the management of Govt IT projects.

[ Parent ]

Short termism by R Mutt (2.00 / 0) #22 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:53:17 AM EST
Another thing is that banking crises don't happen that frequently: maybe every ten years or so.

If a government refuses to bail out the banks much, the benefit of moral hazard doesn't really show up until the next crisis. However, the recessionary impact hits pretty quickly.

So, I suspect that governments may be tempted to bail out more than is optimal in the long term, since they're the ones bearing the pain and it's successor government that would reap the benefit.

[ Parent ]

The British govt by jump the ladder (4.00 / 4) #25 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:59:52 AM EST
Has never bailed a bank out ever.until Northern Rock. Previous UK bank rescues have been done by the great and the good of the cIty. The most the Bank of England has done in previous banking crises is lower interest rates and act as lender of last resort and charging premium for that even.

The Americans have bailed banks out on a number of occasions since 1929 most recently the Savings and Loans (building societies) in the 80s.



[ Parent ]

Of course by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #23 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:53:42 AM EST
Likewise, money invested in building hospitals has a knock-on effect on the economy through extra employment, suppliers, etc. It just needs to be assessed.

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It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Might have to give Primer a try.. by sasquatchan (4.00 / 1) #3 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 04:39:59 PM EST
There are few scifi books of recent reading that have a high barrier to entry.. I tried to explain this to the Mrs one time about a rather hard book I was reading. Some books spoon feed you all the way through. Other books (the hard ones, rare finds) have huge expectations about what the reader already knows before attempting to read this book. Things like mycofarming/yeast for nutrition, FTL systems, etc etc. So the hard books don't go into any detail on it, just present it as is. If you have no background in it., you're lost.. So from what I'm hearing, Primer is like that ?




I wouldn't say that Primer is like that by lm (4.00 / 2) #4 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:06:05 PM EST
It's more realistic in the sense that the engineers act like engineers. That the plot starts to get difficult to follow has more to do with the fact that it deals with a technology that would make life very hard to follow not that one has to be well versed in the theoretical underpinnings of the technology.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

Have you read KJ Parker's by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #5 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:41:15 PM EST
Engineer trilogy?

Highly recommended.


[ Parent ]

Nope by lm (4.00 / 1) #6 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 05:53:26 PM EST
I don't think I've read any sci-fi in five years or so. Somewhere along the lines, I've lost my taste for it.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

actually by Merekat (4.00 / 1) #10 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 03:28:12 AM EST
I don't think that one reads too much like SF.


[ Parent ]

Yes it does by Imperial Mince (4.00 / 1) #12 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:12:09 AM EST
It's well written, but getting very highly overrated here, and it starts falling completely off the rails by the last book.

--
This space reserved for whining like a little bitch and being sanctimonious.
[ Parent ]

last book by Merekat (4.00 / 1) #14 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:16:02 AM EST
Haven't gotten that far yet as it is not on the shelves in small paperback. Which tells you I enjoyed it, but not in an obsessive way. It has been something that while I'm reading it, I enjoy it but once I have put it down, I forget it.


[ Parent ]

Well, not to put you off by Imperial Mince (4.00 / 1) #17 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:53:54 AM EST
But the series started feeling a bit reclucey by the end.

--
This space reserved for whining like a little bitch and being sanctimonious.
[ Parent ]

I loved the whole series, including the ending by R Mutt (4.00 / 1) #20 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:38:44 AM EST
However, a girl I lent it to was disappointed by it and disliked the ending too.

I think the only sensible response is to terminate friendship by refusing to initiate any contact and issuing surly grunts whenever she tries to talk to me.

[ Parent ]

It's not really Sci fi by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #15 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:19:52 AM EST
In that the most advanced technology is basically a Roman style scorpion crossbow.


[ Parent ]

Yeah by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #18 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 06:42:00 AM EST
The impression I got when I saw it (drunk and talking all the way through so it doesn't really count, but whatever) was that you weren't necessarily meant to understand what goes on because it deals with the complexities time travel would cause.

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It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

I'd like to borrow a monkey by TurboThy (4.00 / 1) #7 Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 06:28:08 PM EST
Thanks for the Boldrin/Levine resume. I 'd only read the abstract before recommending it to the others in the IT political association.

__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg


Coal industry by nebbish (4.00 / 2) #13 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:13:22 AM EST
Thatcher was only able to dismantle the coal industry because cheap, child-labour produced coal could be imported from South America. We needed tons of the stuff for our coal-powered power stations, and still do.

While the image of nine year-old bankers sat at desks is an amusing one, in all seriousness the likely outcome of letting the financial sector go the same way would be the UK importing its financial services from India and South-East Asia. Is this a desirable outcome considering the financial sector is pretty much all we have left in the way of industry in the UK?

I really want to see Primer, I have seen it before but that doesn't count because I was drunk and talked all the way through. Like you say, it has to be watched properly.

If you liked Wall-E, you might like Silent Running (if you haven't seen it already).

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It's political correctness gone mad!


Financial sector by R Mutt (4.00 / 1) #24 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:58:36 AM EST
According to this:
According to International Financial Services London, using official statistics, the financial sector accounts for just under 9% of the economy, measured by gross value-added.

The City’s share of that is no more than half, perhaps 4% on a generous estimate.

The City is important as a source of credit to the wider economy, but it's not hugely dominant in its own size.

[ Parent ]

Handy stat by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #26 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 08:00:10 AM EST
Will no doubt be used in the pub tonight :)

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It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

What would un-subsidising banks actually involve? by herbert (4.00 / 1) #16 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:38:10 AM EST
I mean after you get bored of having the riot police beat up bankers and so forth.

Presumably you start by making it clear that the government will not nationalise or otherwise put money into any more banks.

I suppose you also get rid of the deposit protection, or perhaps keep that as a state-backed insurer charging banks a fair premium to buy that insurance.

I don't know enough about how the banks interact with the Bank of England, maybe you have to change things there too.



It would take a while to get bored of that by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #27 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 02:35:35 PM EST
I'd say, keep the deposit insurance. End the special liquidity scheme. Take the money from that and lend it directly to real economy businesses and mortgages via Northern Rock. Further bank failures: aggressively nationalize, wiping out the shareholders but protecting the depositors.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Willingness to nationalize by herbert (4.00 / 1) #29 Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 12:40:44 PM EST
Isn't that a disguised subsidy?  Because banks would be able borrow from other institutions more cheaply than they otherwise would.  Like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could do.

Unless you would wipe out institutional creditors when nationalizing, but then what's the difference between that and just letting the bank fail?

[ Parent ]

I think the problem with Fannie and Freddie by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #30 Sat Oct 04, 2008 at 01:07:45 PM EST
Was the ambiguity. Were they private? Were they the government? Nobody really knew, and they could spin themselves as government-style-safe while taking private-style risks.

With the nationalization plan the government have to clearly take over the shares during the crisis, then clearly sell them off when the crisis was over.

Not sure about the details of whether you'd spare creditors: my knowledge of finance isn't deep enough. I think you'd have to decide on a case-by-case basis whether to let them fail or nationalize. Letting them fail (with deposit insurance for small savers) is the better option for one-offs, but in a multiple-failure situation like the present can cause overall lending to dry up enough to hurt the wider economy.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

I don't think there was much ambiguity by lm (4.00 / 1) #33 Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 12:41:48 AM EST
The shares were all private and dividends went to shareholders.

And the loans all backed by the feds.

That's fucked up and schizophrenic, but it's not ambiguous.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

Socialist [n/t] by Herring (4.00 / 1) #31 Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 12:39:38 AM EST


Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin
[ Parent ]

Yes, of course by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #32 Sun Oct 05, 2008 at 03:38:30 AM EST
As you can see from my manifesto, I favour a redistributive tax system, a relatively high level of taxation and spending, universal benefits, a heavily state-funded healthcare system, and limitation of the free market (see A to D in the preamble).

That's pretty unexceptional for a modern European Socialist, and far left extremism by US standards.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Banks & Coal by Herring (4.00 / 1) #28 Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 05:42:33 PM EST
I think there is one big difference and that's the whole dying thing. Coal mining (maybe not open cast) is pretty fucking dangerous, incredibly phsycially difficult and even if you don't die doing it then you're likely to die early anyway from lung disease. Admittedly, there are probably some cocaine related heart attacks in the city but it's not realy the same thing.

When I lived in Nottinghamshire, the miners's salary was typically £20K-£35K. That was a lot for that area and, OK it was subsidised, but it kept a lot of other jobs going. That was enough money for people to risk the danger.

Plus loads of stuff about other countries having hiegher subsidies and strategic resources and that.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge - Charles Darwin


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