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Diary
By leviramsey (Sun Sep 23, 2007 at 02:41:17 PM EST) football, soccer, betting, betfair, quant (all tags)

Positions in the "to win the Premier League" market from last time, along with current prices (buy prices rounded up, sell prices rounded down; prices quoted from Betfair on the 0-100 scale at $10 per contract)

  • CHELSEA: short 98 contracts (avg price: 27.4): buy price is 18.2 => paper profit of $90.16
  • MAN UTD: short 120 contracts (avg price: 24.9): buy price is 34.8 => paper loss of $97.02
  • ARSENAL: long 21 contracts (avg price: 11.4): sell price is 24.3 => paper profit of $27.09
  • NEWCASTLE: long 33 contracts (avg price: 0.5): sell price is 0.4 => paper loss of $0.33
  • VILLA: long 98 contracts (avg price: 0.2): sell price is 0.1 => paper loss of $0.98
  • BLACKBURN: long 77 contracts (avg price: 0.3): sell price is 0.1 => paper loss of $1.54
  • LIVERPOOL: short 46 contracts (avg price: 25.3): buy price is 19.3 => paper profit of $27.60
  • MAN CITY: long 22 contracts (avg price: 0.6): sell price is 0.5 => paper loss of $0.22
  • WEST HAM: long 43 contracts (avg price: 0.2): sell price is 0.1 => paper loss of $0.43

Net paper profit: $44.33



Obviously, the departure of The Special OneTM has helped the portfolio, though the benefits thereof have been attenuated by increasing the price of the Man Utd contract. With what's coming out about how Mourinho was run out of town, I have major doubts about whether Chelsea will even qualify for the UEFA Cup this year. The Pain from the Ukraine and John Terry are the only players who seem to be happy with the change; I expect a few players who came to play for Mourinho (Drogba, Essien, and Cole among them), not for Chelsea, to put in transfer requests in January and if Chelsea doesn't move them, they'll be the epitome of dressing room cancer. Roman's the manager now, is he even the equal of Sammy Lee?

The model continues to slant towards North London, despite current projections of Spurs being relegated and 5 points from safety (I do actually think that Spurs will turn it around... if nothing else, Jol will be fired and Levy's money will bring in a better manager than Roman or Avram). The upper end of the table is projected to have a distinctly Nowrth Western feel, with Manchester City, Manchester Home Counties, and Liverpool rounding out the top 4. Villa, Newcastle, and Blackburn are in the potential European places.

SELL 27 MAN UTD at 34.4. While United took the first 3 pointer in the top 4 league, they did it against the club with most tenuous hold on a Champions League place. They did more than triple their intrinsic value, but the spread between that and the price has widened.

BUY 12 ARSENAL at 25.1. Over the offseason, I thought that Arsenal were likely to fall out of the top 4. I was wrong. The model points to an intrinsic value greater than 60.

SELL 49 LIVERPOOL at 18.8. An even greater disappointment for the Scousers as they drop points at home to Small Heath. I'm sure there will be some extra hubcap-stealing over the next few days to make up for funds lost on betting on the Liverpool franchise to win on Saturday.

SELL 29 CHELSEA at 17.8. The collapse in Chelsea's price went through one of my hedge-out points, thus reducing my shorting.

BUY 17 MAN CITY at 0.6. Drawing to Fulham, even if it's away, isn't a good sign, but I still fancy Citeh as a longshot.

BUY 17 NEWCASTLE at 0.6. They're back in my good graces after soundly defeating a highly-rated West Ham side.

BUY 33 BLACKBURN at 0.2. Upward price momentum has been blunted by a home loss. Intrinsic value is still around 10x current price.

BUY 25 VILLA at 0.3. Over the weekend, the Villa market went one-sided (only offers to sell were shown on betfair), which would have rendered it an unpriced contract and unworthy of consideration. A sound defeat of Everton brought more bettors out of the woodwork.

BUY 33 WEST HAM at 0.2. A borderline play. But I'll still run with it.

In total, that's $847.61 risked this week. The positions now stand at:

  • CHELSEA: short 127 contracts with $921.88 risked
  • MAN UTD: short 147 contracts with $1078.24 risked
  • ARSENAL: long 33 contracts with $54.06 risked
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
  • VILLA: long 123 contracts with $2.71 risked
  • BLACKBURN: long 110 contracts with $2.72 risked
  • LIVERPOOL: short 95 contracts with $741.50 risked
  • MAN CITY: long 39 contracts with $2.34 risked
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
  • Cash balance: $192.36

If $TEAM wins the league

  • Chelsea: loss of $387.64
  • Man Utd: loss of $587.64
  • Arsenal: gain of $1212.36
  • Newcastle: gain of $1382.36
  • Villa: gain of $2112.36
  • Blackburn: gain of $1982.36
  • Liverpool: loss of $67.64
  • Man City: gain of $1272.36
  • West Ham: gain of $1642.36
  • Anyone not listed: gain of $882.36
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Big Fun with Betting Exchanges | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Gamblin' ~ by husiacct (1.00 / 3) #1 Sun Sep 23, 2007 at 03:11:08 PM EST


Liverpool by DullTrev (4.00 / 1) #2 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 12:41:46 AM EST

Liverpool have a surprisingly poor record against us in the Premiership. No, I have no idea why, either, but given my brother supports the scousers, I'm more than happy about it.


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DFJ?
As Villa have been wrt Chelsea... by leviramsey (2.00 / 0) #3 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 01:37:56 AM EST

I figure that if the Villa beat Spurs at the Lane next week, we can make it two managers fired...


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Could I be the next Lee Abrams?
[ Parent ]
Mourinho's by yicky yacky (4.00 / 2) #4 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 03:22:48 AM EST

departure has skewed things in your favour, no doubt. When you first posted these, I thought it was a fairly brave and adventurous choice, but maybe not so much now.

I don't know about Chelsea. Yesterday's results did nothing but confirm that Alan Hansen knows little outside the art of defending to my eyes. He was on 'Match Of The Day 2' asserting that Manchester were superior in every department. If they were, I didn't see it. ManU had the better of the first 10-15 minutes, then Chelsea came right back into it, and for a few minutes looked like the better side; then Mikel got harshly sent off. After that, all bets are off. It's not hard to look the better side when you've got an extra man on the field; arguably, they should have been a lot more convincing than they were. Having said that, Ferguson's a canny old so-and-so, and they came away with the three points, which is ultimately what matters.

The revelations (or rather assertions) in The Observer yesterday regarding Chelsea were quite stunning; if true, it hardly bodes well for them, but they've got a team of world-class players and a veritable mountain range of moolah, so I wouldn't quite write them off yet.

Arsenal are playing sexy football again, which is an unmitigated joy to behold (especially now that there are no whiney, talented, french cheats cluttering up their squad), but I question their solidity. I suspect they're fragile, in that better teams may well be capable of disrupting their flow. They had trouble disrupting Manchester City and Blackburn, and have yet to play a really 'big' team (Spurs notwithstanding). Let's not forget that Liverpool spanked Derby 6-0 and Spurs beat them 4-0; I'm not sure how much can be read into Saturday's endeavours.

We're not discussing Villa today. ;)


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Vacuity abhors a vacuum.
Terry's suing over The Observer article by jump the ladder (4.00 / 2) #5 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 04:02:27 AM EST
I thought they played OK at Old Trafford but even in their better moments, they never looked like scoring even with 11 men. Not really Grant's fault as our attacking players are pretty much out of form at the moment which was a continuity between the new regime and old regime.

[ Parent ]
True by yicky yacky (4.00 / 2) #6 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 04:27:27 AM EST

Without Drogba (and, to a lesser extent, Lampard), and with Kalou not really in form at the moment, it's hard to see where the goals are going to come from in the short term.

Is he actually going to sue, or just claiming, for PR purposes, that he's going to start a lawsuit, which will magically fail to materialize at a later date? The Guardian Group don't look too concerned at this exact instant, as the articles in question are still online, and many of the claims made in those articles were also in The Telegraph (albeit with a more attenuated tone).


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Vacuity abhors a vacuum.
[ Parent ]
Arsenal by TPD (4.00 / 2) #7 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 05:22:13 AM EST
I definitely agree that Saturday's result didn't mean much beyond there was (a relatively straightforward*) job to do and Arsenal did it as clinically as possible.

However Arsenal are going in the right direction, yes they didn't find it the easiest against Man City or Blackburn (who we should have still beaten beyond a howler from Lehmann), but not many teams  will. It was the performances against "the lesser teams" last year that cost us being in contention rather than head to heads against the big boys.

That said I still think Liverpool's scarily strong team should be the team to beat this year - though Benitez's rather odd squad rotations in the premier league could very well be their undoing.

* Truly Derby are not premiership class at the moment, and need to find seomthing extra pretty quickly if they are not going to stay routed to that bottom spot. I hope they do!

why sit, when you can sit and swivel with The Ab-SwivellerTM

[ Parent ]
Largely agreed by yicky yacky (4.00 / 2) #8 Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 06:22:14 AM EST

I actually like New Arsenal© more than the all-conquering squad from 3-6 years ago. Much as I loved the way the old guard played (and still regard Bergkamp as one of the best foreign players to grace the Prem[*]), there was something about the antics of the Pires-Vieira-Wiltord axis-of-evil (in decreasing order of despicability) that always put me off. Great players; shockingly poor sportsfolk. The only member of the current squad which emanates similar vibes of hate-a-bility is Van Persie, but he's calmed down a bit over time. Fabregas is a class act and a half (get that man a passport), but I think the current squad's strength is that it's a group of very good players all playing like a team. Whether this lasts as certain individuals naturally rise to prominence over others remains to be seen. I'm still not entirely convinced by Adebayor -- he's in a rich seam of form at the moment, no doubt (beautiful goals this week) -- but only time will tell whether we're seeing the waxing of a world-class talent or a brief high point in the career of a generally "good" player.

Still, as you say, they're on the right track and, as a number of people have apparently mentioned this weekend (including, by certain accounts, Henry himself), Henry's departure for Catalonia has liberated the rest of the squad to play in a more cohesive, natural and balanced manner.

[*] - My finger is entirely off the pulse on that question, though. I always think Henry and Cantona get a bit too much praise and Zola and Bergkamp not enough.


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Vacuity abhors a vacuum.
[ Parent ]
Big Fun with Betting Exchanges | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback