Finished These Foolish Things by Deborah Moggach. Some elderly retirees are outsourced to a retirement home in Bangalore. This gives rise to moderate hi-jinks and much learning about the other cultures points of view. Seemed an OK read but basically not that interesting.
What I'm Reading 2
Finished Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Interesting book by a successful options market analyst, concentrating on how people misunderstand probability, and how their cognitive biases affect their decisions.
He points out that at any given time, the most successful traders in a market will actually be the worst, since they're taking too many risks. Due to survivor bias, where the worst performers are eliminated, many of the most successful are operating purely on the basis of good luck.
He also talks a lot about rare but highly-significant "black swan" events, which he regards people as being biased against considering. He seems to have been quite successful in his own career, based on the assumption that black swan events tend to be mispriced.
He makes a pretty strong case for most people, even traders, significantly misunderstanding probability, and underestimating the role of luck in success.
The minor weakness of the book is that he seems to have a bit of a case of everything-looks-like-a-nail syndrome. For instance, he repeats the old and much-debunked myth about the QWERTY keyboard being less efficient than other keyboard layouts, using this as an example of how initial luck can be fossilized by standardization.
Also, I think that there is some chance that people might read the book and start erring the other way, overestimating the effect of chance. For instance, if most traders in a stock market literally invested completely at random, any trader who paid even the slightest attention to which companies were better run or better positioned would be able to clean up. Since in reality it's very difficult to systematically beat the market, that suggest that they're not trading completely at random, but with equivalent levels of skill. This still means that the differences between them will be random, and that which of them is most successful is random: it just doesn't mean that markets are necessarily worse than central planning.
Those are pretty small caveats though, and I'd say this book is well worth reading.
Listening
Still vaguely thinking about visiting Spain, so I grabbed an 8-CD course
Spanish
with Michel Thomas to listen to on the way to work.
It's an odd kind of course: it concentrates almost entirely on learning basic grammar and pronunciation. Usefully for an audiobook it assumes no reading of any kind. Don't think it was that useful for my purposes though, because there's very little vocabulary and very few useful phrases: he concentrates on teaching the grammar using a selection of words that are as close to English as possible.
So, it would probably work well as a fast introduction to someone who's going to be using the language. Not that useful for me though, as all I really want are a few touristy phrases. I think you'd really need to follow up with some actual use of the language too, or you'd just forget it all..
Watching
The Bourne Identity.
Pretty good: fast paced, action-packed.
Good fight scenes, with a decent balance between entertainment
and realism.
I think I might be getting towards being too old for action movies though, because I found it hard to follow what was going on in the car chases: lots of fast cutting, very high proportion of close-ups, wobbly steadicam footage. Found myself confused as to who was in what car sometimes. Had similar problems with Transformers so it's not a one-off. On the other hand, I had had a few beers, so maybe if I enlist sobriety I can keep watching them for a few more years.
Me: random
Other signs of old age and corruption: I found
this Dilbert cartoon
rang very true. It's probably a bad thing when you start reading
Dilbert and siding with the PHB.
Web
Functional
programming is crap.
LOLcats|thulhu|secrets|tardis|rus|god.
Todd Klein on Batman logo (Metafilter).
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