The valuation model now says that Home Counties Buccaneers should be more valuable than L'Arse, albeit slightly, with both being the mid-30s or thereabouts. Liverpool's decline (as has seemed to always be the case under Benitez, the club of martyrdom seem to be all too willing to settle for a draw) is basically the only silver lining from the past couple of weeks.
So here's the latest projected table... the valuation algorithm to some extent believes that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so the valuations don't perfectly correlate with the expected point totals.
- Man Utd: 88 pts
- Arsenal: 85 pts
- Portsmouth: 76 pts
- Man City: 76 pts
- Chelsea: 73 pts
- Blackburn: 70 pts
- Villa: 61 pts
- Liverpool: 60 pts
- Newcastle: 53 pts
- Everton: 51 pts
- West Ham: 43 pts
- Reading: 42 pts
- Fulham: 40 pts
- Birmingham: 37 pts
- Spurs: 32 pts
- Boro: 30 pts
- Sunderland: 29 pts
- Wigan: 26 pts
- Bolton: 26 pts
- Derby: 22 pts
Arsenal and United supporters can put any insomniac worries about relegation aside. I expect that sales of Ambien will be down significantly in the South East.
Even with a new manager, Spurs still can't get a bounce and beat a club they need to beat in order to climb the table. As I see it, the weakness at Spurs is defence, and yet the board spent the summer masturbating at the prospect of paying Thierry Henry money for Darren Bent (admittedly, Henry's goal return is only twice that of Bent thus far this season; another smart move by Wenger), when they've already got too many strikers. I'm sure Villa would be willing to deal Zat Knight for Jermaine Defoe; he fits what seems to be O'Neill's player ideal: young, fast, and British.
SELL 13 MAN UTD at 42.3. Strangely, the price hasn't moved much, even after getting an away point against the other horse in the two-horse race.
BUY 7 ARSENAL at 26.0. You were expecting? Since I don't really have anything better to put here:
SELL 26 CHELSEA at 21.7. Their valuation has gone up dramatically over the past few weeks, but I think winning the league is a bridge too far. It's still an open question whether they'll still have Drogba on February 1.
SELL 56 LIVERPOOL at 7.6. So I see that Rafa thinks that his job is safe. Who knows, he may well be able to pull the wool over Hicks's and Gillett's eyes, given what they know about football.
BUY 10 MAN CITY at 0.8. They at least took care of business against the Mackems, and still are significantly undervalued.
BUY 19 BLACKBURN at 0.3. While dropping points is not the way to the title, I think they're capable of a run that will see a profitable exit point emerge.
BUY 26 PORTSMOUTH at 0.2. Like it or not, Pompey could well be another Blackburn: a smaller club that manages to hang with the clubs a class above them (the big 4, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle, Villa, and [pending a recovery from Ridsdale, Bates, etc.] Leeds) for a sustained period. The one real worry this season is the players they could lose to African competitions.
- CHELSEA: short 310 contracts with $2,473.96 risked
- MAN UTD: short 224 contracts with $1,548.71 risked
- ARSENAL: long 71 contracts with $162.07 risked
- NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
- VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
- BLACKBURN: long 210 contracts with $5.78 risked
- LIVERPOOL: short 310 contracts with $2,608.58 risked
- MAN CITY: long 67 contracts with $5.36 risked
- WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
- PORTSMOUTH: long 61 contracts with $1.22 risked
- Cash balance: $185.71
If $TEAM wins the league:
- Chelsea: loss of $1,474.29
- Man Utd: loss of $614.29
- Arsenal: gain of $2,335.71
- Newcastle: gain of $2,125.71
- Villa: gain of $3,545.71
- Blackburn: gain of $3,725.71
- Liverpool: loss of $1,474.29
- Man City: gain of $2,295.71
- West Ham: gain of $2,385.71
- Portsmouth: gain of $2,235.71
- Field: gain of $1,625.71
NP: Led Zeppelin - Nobody's Fault but Mine, on 16 // The Vault
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