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Diary
By leviramsey (Mon Nov 05, 2007 at 06:56:07 PM EST) football, soccer, betting, betfair, quant (all tags)

Internet connectivity was down for the beginning of last week, so I failed to post any trades. I did post a brief summary of my basic opinions as a comment to the previous entry.

Positions in the "to win the Premier League" market from last time, along with current prices (buy prices rounded up, sell prices rounded down; prices quoted from Betfair on the 0-100 scale at $10 per contract)

  • CHELSEA: short 284 contracts (avg price 20.0): buy price is now 22.3 => paper loss of $65.32
  • MAN UTD: short 211 contracts (avg price 30.1): buy price is now 42.8 => paper loss of $267.97
  • ARSENAL: long 64 contracts (avg price 22.5): sell price is now 25.6 => paper profit of $19.84
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts (avg price 0.6): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $2.50
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts (avg price 0.3): UNPRICED => paper loss of $4.42
  • BLACKBURN: long 191 contracts (avg price 0.3): sell price is now 0.2 => paper loss of $1.91
  • LIVERPOOL: short 254 contracts (avg price 17.6): buy price is now 8.1 => paper profit of $241.30
  • MAN CITY: long 57 contracts (avg price 0.8): sell price is now 0.7 => paper loss of $0.57
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts (avg price 0.2): UNPRICED => paper loss of $1.52
  • PORTSMOUTH: long 35 contracts (avg price 0.2): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $0.35

Net paper loss: $83.42



The valuation model now says that Home Counties Buccaneers should be more valuable than L'Arse, albeit slightly, with both being the mid-30s or thereabouts. Liverpool's decline (as has seemed to always be the case under Benitez, the club of martyrdom seem to be all too willing to settle for a draw) is basically the only silver lining from the past couple of weeks.

So here's the latest projected table... the valuation algorithm to some extent believes that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so the valuations don't perfectly correlate with the expected point totals.

  1. Man Utd: 88 pts
  2. Arsenal: 85 pts
  3. Portsmouth: 76 pts
  4. Man City: 76 pts
  5. Chelsea: 73 pts
  6. Blackburn: 70 pts
  7. Villa: 61 pts
  8. Liverpool: 60 pts
  9. Newcastle: 53 pts
  10. Everton: 51 pts
  11. West Ham: 43 pts
  12. Reading: 42 pts
  13. Fulham: 40 pts
  14. Birmingham: 37 pts
  15. Spurs: 32 pts
  16. Boro: 30 pts
  17. Sunderland: 29 pts
  18. Wigan: 26 pts
  19. Bolton: 26 pts
  20. Derby: 22 pts

Arsenal and United supporters can put any insomniac worries about relegation aside. I expect that sales of Ambien will be down significantly in the South East.

Even with a new manager, Spurs still can't get a bounce and beat a club they need to beat in order to climb the table. As I see it, the weakness at Spurs is defence, and yet the board spent the summer masturbating at the prospect of paying Thierry Henry money for Darren Bent (admittedly, Henry's goal return is only twice that of Bent thus far this season; another smart move by Wenger), when they've already got too many strikers. I'm sure Villa would be willing to deal Zat Knight for Jermaine Defoe; he fits what seems to be O'Neill's player ideal: young, fast, and British.

SELL 13 MAN UTD at 42.3. Strangely, the price hasn't moved much, even after getting an away point against the other horse in the two-horse race.

BUY 7 ARSENAL at 26.0. You were expecting? Since I don't really have anything better to put here:

SELL 26 CHELSEA at 21.7. Their valuation has gone up dramatically over the past few weeks, but I think winning the league is a bridge too far. It's still an open question whether they'll still have Drogba on February 1.

SELL 56 LIVERPOOL at 7.6. So I see that Rafa thinks that his job is safe. Who knows, he may well be able to pull the wool over Hicks's and Gillett's eyes, given what they know about football.

BUY 10 MAN CITY at 0.8. They at least took care of business against the Mackems, and still are significantly undervalued.

BUY 19 BLACKBURN at 0.3. While dropping points is not the way to the title, I think they're capable of a run that will see a profitable exit point emerge.

BUY 26 PORTSMOUTH at 0.2. Like it or not, Pompey could well be another Blackburn: a smaller club that manages to hang with the clubs a class above them (the big 4, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle, Villa, and [pending a recovery from Ridsdale, Bates, etc.] Leeds) for a sustained period. The one real worry this season is the players they could lose to African competitions.

Overall positions

  • CHELSEA: short 310 contracts with $2,473.96 risked
  • MAN UTD: short 224 contracts with $1,548.71 risked
  • ARSENAL: long 71 contracts with $162.07 risked
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
  • BLACKBURN: long 210 contracts with $5.78 risked
  • LIVERPOOL: short 310 contracts with $2,608.58 risked
  • MAN CITY: long 67 contracts with $5.36 risked
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
  • PORTSMOUTH: long 61 contracts with $1.22 risked
  • Cash balance: $185.71

If $TEAM wins the league:

  • Chelsea: loss of $1,474.29
  • Man Utd: loss of $614.29
  • Arsenal: gain of $2,335.71
  • Newcastle: gain of $2,125.71
  • Villa: gain of $3,545.71
  • Blackburn: gain of $3,725.71
  • Liverpool: loss of $1,474.29
  • Man City: gain of $2,295.71
  • West Ham: gain of $2,385.71
  • Portsmouth: gain of $2,235.71
  • Field: gain of $1,625.71

NP: Led Zeppelin - Nobody's Fault but Mine, on 16 // The Vault

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Fruitful? Fun with Betting Exchanges | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Drogba won't leave before the summer by jump the ladder (4.00 / 2) #1 Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 02:28:52 AM EST
African Nations Cup plus being Champions League cup tied means he's not likely to be moving to any big European Club that could afford him.

ANC by TPD (4.00 / 1) #2 Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 02:38:49 AM EST
could have a really big factor this year, really happy that Adebayor isn't going to be going anywhere.

Toure for us and Drogba for you could really make a difference when the time come to tot up points at the end of the season.

why sit, when you can sit and swivel with The Ab-SwivellerTM

[ Parent ]
That's where Man U and Liverpool by jump the ladder (4.00 / 1) #3 Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 03:25:08 AM EST
Are at advantage having no African players and one respectively. I think we're harder hit than Arse with Essien, Mikel and Drogba out.

Why is it held every two years unlike the Euros which are on a four yearly cycle and why is it at such a crap time of year?

[ Parent ]
Fruitful? Fun with Betting Exchanges | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback