Print Story Great Fun with Betting Exchanges
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By leviramsey (Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 02:41:37 PM EST) football, soccer, betting, betfair, quant (all tags)

Positions in the "to win the Premier League" market from last time, along with current prices (buy prices rounded up, sell prices rounded down; prices quoted from Betfair on the 0-100 scale at $10 per contract)

  • CHELSEA: short 310 contracts (avg price 20.1): buy price is now 15.2 => paper profit of $151.90
  • MAN UTD: short 224 contracts (avg price 30.8): buy price is now 47.7 => paper loss of $378.56
  • ARSENAL: long 71 contracts (avg price 22.9): sell price is now 26.6 => paper profit of $26.27
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts (avg price 0.6): UNPRICED => paper loss of $3.00
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts (avg price 0.3): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $3.84
  • BLACKBURN: long 210 contracts (avg price 0.3): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $4.20
  • LIVERPOOL: short 310 contracts (avg price 15.8): buy price is now 9.1 => paper profit of $207.70
  • MAN CITY: long 67 contracts (avg price 0.8): sell price is now 0.7 => paper loss of $0.67
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts (avg price 0.2): UNPRICED => paper loss of $1.52
  • PORTSMOUTH: long 61 contracts (avg price 0.2): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $0.61

Net paper loss: $6.53



No significant changes in the valuations. Bullish momentum has virtually disappeared from the Chelsea contracts (as it has from Liverpool), accounting for the improvement from last week.

As I write this, I'm listening to a rebroadcast of Sunday's 606 on Sirius 125. Eagerly awaiting the calls from the West Midlands.

Spoony expects Spurs fans to be happy with a 4-0 win over Wigan? Why? Look at the games Spurs have won thus far: Derby at home 4-0, Wigan at home 4-0. Both at home against two of the worst sides to ever grace the Premiership. One from Jol and one from Ramos. Wigan are probably slightly better than Derby, but is this really evidence of improvement in Spurs' fortunes?

The latest projected table (does not strictly correlate to valuations)... the big story is Chelsea just edging their way into the Champions League places, and Liverpool sneak past Villa for seventh.

  1. Man Utd: 90 pts
  2. Arsenal: 87
  3. Man City: 74
  4. Chelsea: 73
  5. Portsmouth: 71
  6. Blackburn: 68
  7. Liverpool: 65
  8. Villa: 64
  9. Everton: 54
  10. Newcastle: 49
  11. West Ham: 48
  12. Reading: 39
  13. Spurs: 37
  14. Fulham: 36
  15. Birmingham: 35
  16. Sunderland: 32
  17. Boro: 29
  18. Bolton: 28
  19. Wigan: 26
  20. Derby: 20

SELL 12 MAN UTD at 47.1. I'm nervous about selling United, even at this high a price.

BUY 8 ARSENAL at 27.1. Another week, another Arsenal buy.

SELL 41 CHELSEA at 14.7. A home draw to Everton leaves Chelsea 5 points behind Arsenal and conceding a game in hand.

SELL 70 LIVERPOOL at 8.6. Yawn.

BUY 9 MAN CITY at 1.0. Less significantly undervalued than before, but still a decent shout of a Champions League place. Thaksin will have to makes sure that no other European countries will extradite him to Thailand.

BUY 20 BLACKBURN at 0.2. Another boring pattern play.

BUY 20 VILLA at 0.2. With the return of a 2-way market, this play comes back.

BUY 20 PORTSMOUTH at 0.2. Still worth a punt at 500-1.

Overall positions:

  • CHELSEA: short 351 contracts with $2,823.69 risked
  • MAN UTD: short 236 contracts with $1,612.19 risked
  • ARSENAL: long 79 contracts with $183.75 risked
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
  • VILLA: long 212 contracts with $4.82 risked
  • BLACKBURN: long 230 contracts with $6.18 risked
  • LIVERPOOL: short 380 contracts with $3,248.38 risked
  • MAN CITY: long 76 contracts with $6.26 risked
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
  • PORTSMOUTH: long 81 contracts with $1.62 risked
  • Cash balance: $108.92

If $TEAM wins the league

  • Chelsea: loss of $1,731.08
  • Man Utd: loss of $581.08 (exposure to Manyoo has been declining for about a month through selling Chelsea and Liverpool)
  • Arsenal: gain of $2,568.92
  • Newcastle: gain of $2,278.92
  • Villa: gain of $3,898.92
  • Blackburn: gain of $4,078.92
  • Liverpool: loss of $2,021.08
  • Man City: gain of $2,538.92
  • West Ham: gain of $2,538.92
  • Portsmouth: gain of $2,588.92
  • Field: gain of $1,778.92
< We aren't the saviors we wish we were. | BBC White season: 'Rivers of Blood' >
Great Fun with Betting Exchanges | 1 comment (1 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Toon... by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #1 Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 10:50:42 PM EST
The new manager honeymoon period is over; our away form is shocking.  More of a dead cat bounce than a revitalisation.

Still, next year...


Great Fun with Betting Exchanges | 1 comment (1 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback