For the first time, Arsenal's intrinsic value declined, though I still make them as about 2-1 favorites to win the title.
Projected table, based on predicted point totals (may not necessarily correlate to order of intrinsic values)
- Arsenal: 95 pts
- Man Utd: 82 pts
- Man City: 80 pts
- Villa: 67 pts
- Blackburn: 64 pts
- Liverpool: 63 pts
- Portsmouth: 63 pts
- Newcastle: 57 pts
- Chelsea: 51 pts
- Everton: 50 pts
- West Ham: 49 pts
- Spurs: 39 pts
- Birmingham: 36 pts
- Reading: 36 pts
- Fulham: 36 pts
- Sunderland: 35 pts
- Boro: 34 pts
- Wigan: 33 pts
- Bolton: 28 pts
- Derby: 24 pts
SELL 22 MAN UTD at 37.3. Disposing of Wigan at home is what they should do, but it was enough to increase their intrinsic value and put them into the second-most-likely place.
BUY 8 ARSENAL at 31.3. The price moving through a hedge-point and a narrowing of the valuation spread reduce the purchase this week.
SELL 54 CHELSEA at 15.1. Their price has rebounded a little thanks to a Champions League win and beating Bolton. Neither really convinces me. I think Roman is targetting the Champions League this year; winning that would of course give Chelsea the one piece of silverware that Mourinho couldn't win in his tenure there. Accordingly, I think Roman will gladly trade a league title for the CL. As for the Bolton win, just let those words set in for a while. It's Bol-ton!
SELL 60 LIVERPOOL at 13.5. There's no dishonor in drawing with Spurs, of course. But there's a major qualitative difference between Villa's draw a week ago and Liverpool's. Villa owned Spurs, at the Lane, for 80 minutes, arguably by too much, given O'Neill's substitutions. Spurs dominated Liverpool at Anfield for 89 minutes. Which inspires more confidence? That result basically made it a two-horse race.
SELL 7 MAN CITY at 1.1. I'm still very bullish on Man City. This is just a hedging exercise to reduce exposure.
BUY 33 VILLA at 0.3. The club from B6 continue to get the job done, especially at home. I'm projecting at least a point against Manyoo, which should increase the price by a bit.
BUY 33 BLACKBURN at 0.3. While their previous lofty position has been relinquished to other Lancastrian clubs, I still reckon that they're undervalued.
- CHELSEA: short 237 contracts with $1,873.70 risked
- MAN UTD: short 193 contracts with $1,369.30 risked
- ARSENAL: long 53 contracts with $114.50 risked
- NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
- VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
- BLACKBURN: long 179 contracts with $3.77 risked
- LIVERPOOL: short 198 contracts with $1,604.50 risked
- MAN CITY: long 45 contracts with $3.00 risked
- WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
- Cash balance: $22.62
If $TEAM wins the league
- Chelsea: loss of $1,067.38
- Man Utd: loss of $627.38
- Arsenal: gain of $1,832.62
- Newcastle: gain of $1,802.62
- Villa: gain of $3,222.62
- Blackburn: gain of $3,092.62
- Liverpool: loss of $677.38
- Man City: gain of $1,752.62
- West Ham: gain of $2,062.62
- Field: gain of $1,302.62
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