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By leviramsey (Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 03:35:05 AM EST) football, soccer, betting, betfair, quant (all tags)

I had a much more involved write-up, but closed the tab before hitting submit, so this one is somewhat abbreviated (and the prices may be slightly out-of-date; these are from yesterday at about 3pm EDT).

Positions in the "to win the Premier League" market from last time, along with current prices (buy prices rounded up, sell prices rounded down; prices quoted from Betfair on the 0-100 scale at $10 per contract)

  • CHELSEA: short 183 contracts (avg price 22.6): buy price is now 15.7 => paper profit of $126.27
  • MAN UTD: short 171 contracts (avg price 27.9): buy price is now 37.6 => paper loss of $165.87
  • ARSENAL: long 45 contracts (avg price 19.9): sell price is now 30.7 => paper profit of $48.60
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts (avg price: 0.6): sell price is now 0.2 => paper loss of $2.00
  • VILLA: long 159 contracts (avg price: 0.3): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $3.18
  • BLACKBURN: long 146 contracts (avg price: 0.3): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $2.92
  • LIVERPOOL: short 138 contracts (avg price: 21.3): buy price is now 13.9 => paper profit of $102.12
  • MAN CITY: long 52 contracts (avg price: 0.8): sell price is now 1.1 => paper profit of $1.56
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts (avg price: 0.2): sell now UNPRICED => paper loss of $1.52

Net paper profit: $103.06



For the first time, Arsenal's intrinsic value declined, though I still make them as about 2-1 favorites to win the title.

Projected table, based on predicted point totals (may not necessarily correlate to order of intrinsic values)

  1. Arsenal: 95 pts
  2. Man Utd: 82 pts
  3. Man City: 80 pts
  4. Villa: 67 pts
  5. Blackburn: 64 pts
  6. Liverpool: 63 pts
  7. Portsmouth: 63 pts
  8. Newcastle: 57 pts
  9. Chelsea: 51 pts
  10. Everton: 50 pts
  11. West Ham: 49 pts
  12. Spurs: 39 pts
  13. Birmingham: 36 pts
  14. Reading: 36 pts
  15. Fulham: 36 pts
  16. Sunderland: 35 pts
  17. Boro: 34 pts
  18. Wigan: 33 pts
  19. Bolton: 28 pts
  20. Derby: 24 pts

SELL 22 MAN UTD at 37.3. Disposing of Wigan at home is what they should do, but it was enough to increase their intrinsic value and put them into the second-most-likely place.

BUY 8 ARSENAL at 31.3. The price moving through a hedge-point and a narrowing of the valuation spread reduce the purchase this week.

SELL 54 CHELSEA at 15.1. Their price has rebounded a little thanks to a Champions League win and beating Bolton. Neither really convinces me. I think Roman is targetting the Champions League this year; winning that would of course give Chelsea the one piece of silverware that Mourinho couldn't win in his tenure there. Accordingly, I think Roman will gladly trade a league title for the CL. As for the Bolton win, just let those words set in for a while. It's Bol-ton!

SELL 60 LIVERPOOL at 13.5. There's no dishonor in drawing with Spurs, of course. But there's a major qualitative difference between Villa's draw a week ago and Liverpool's. Villa owned Spurs, at the Lane, for 80 minutes, arguably by too much, given O'Neill's substitutions. Spurs dominated Liverpool at Anfield for 89 minutes. Which inspires more confidence? That result basically made it a two-horse race.

SELL 7 MAN CITY at 1.1. I'm still very bullish on Man City. This is just a hedging exercise to reduce exposure.

BUY 33 VILLA at 0.3. The club from B6 continue to get the job done, especially at home. I'm projecting at least a point against Manyoo, which should increase the price by a bit.

BUY 33 BLACKBURN at 0.3. While their previous lofty position has been relinquished to other Lancastrian clubs, I still reckon that they're undervalued.

Overall positions

  • CHELSEA: short 237 contracts with $1,873.70 risked
  • MAN UTD: short 193 contracts with $1,369.30 risked
  • ARSENAL: long 53 contracts with $114.50 risked
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
  • BLACKBURN: long 179 contracts with $3.77 risked
  • LIVERPOOL: short 198 contracts with $1,604.50 risked
  • MAN CITY: long 45 contracts with $3.00 risked
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
  • Cash balance: $22.62

If $TEAM wins the league

  • Chelsea: loss of $1,067.38
  • Man Utd: loss of $627.38
  • Arsenal: gain of $1,832.62
  • Newcastle: gain of $1,802.62
  • Villa: gain of $3,222.62
  • Blackburn: gain of $3,092.62
  • Liverpool: loss of $677.38
  • Man City: gain of $1,752.62
  • West Ham: gain of $2,062.62
  • Field: gain of $1,302.62
< squeak squeak | BBC White season: 'Rivers of Blood' >
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Closed tab by gazbo (4.00 / 1) #1 Mon Oct 08, 2007 at 03:58:21 AM EST
Once upon a time I started writing a Scoop plugin to autosave stories for just this reason; never got it finished though.

Maybe one day I'll have another go once I've re-learned teh pearl.


I recommend always assuming 7th normal form where items in a text column are not allowed to rhyme.

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