A reversal of fortunes, obviously, as the portfolio lost over 128 bucks since my last post. Man Utd, in the mind of the betting public, are set to steamroll to the title.
While I am not writing Surrey Reds off (as I foolishly did in the first dispatch from the front), I still favor Arsenal. Arsenal's intrinsic value, though, has declined slightly from last time, while Utd increased theirs by nearly 40%.
Latest projected table, based on point totals (may not correlate to intrinsic value):
- Arsenal: 96 pts
- Man Utd: 88 pts
- Man City: 84 pts
- Blackburn: 71 pts
- Portsmouth: 70 pts
- Liverpool: 66 pts
- Villa: 62 pts
- Newcastle: 62 pts
- Chelsea: 53 pts
- West Ham: 51 pts
- Everton: 43 pts
- Reading: 37 pts
- Sunderland: 35 pts
- Spurs: 35 pts
- Fulham: 34 pts
- Birmingham: 33 pts
- Boro: 30 pts
- Wigan: 29 pts
- Derby: 26 pts
- Bolton: 23 pts
With last weekend's results, the first club to be practically eliminated from the title race is Bolton. The safety total implied by the above table could also be the lowest such total in the history of top-flight football.
SELL 18 MAN UTD at 42.0. It should be predictable by now that this will be in my trades.
BUY 11 ARSENAL at 26.7. A pullback in price means a chance to pick up a few more contracts.
SELL 47 CHELSEA at 15.6. Chelsea have won two in a row with Petr Cech shutting out opponents over the past 270-plus minutes. However, their chances are still far more remote than this price implies. They're seven points behind and conceding a game in hand (not to mention that they've got a 13 goal deficiency in goal difference). Chelsea will have to win 3 more games than Arsenal down the stretch to have a prayer and will be counting on Manyoo stumbling as well. That's a hell of a parlay...
SELL 56 LIVERPOOL at 13.1. Can Rafa win the league? Scousers will have to wait till next year...
BUY 12 MAN CITY at 1.3. Unlike a few other clubs in the hunt for the non-Country-Club division of the Premier League, Man City supporters have little to fear regarding the FA poaching their manager.
BUY 35 PORTSMOUTH at 0.2. Pompey have played their way up to fifth place with fairly consistent play, yet aren't priced like a fifth place club should be.
- CHELSEA: short 284 contracts with $2,270.38 risked
- MAN UTD: short 211 contracts with $1,473.70 risked
- ARSENAL: long 64 contracts with $143.87 risked
- NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
- VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
- BLACKBURN: long 191 contracts with $5.21 risked
- LIVERPOOL: short 254 contracts with $2,091.14
- MAN CITY: long 57 contracts with $4.56 risked
- WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
- PORTSMOUTH: long 35 contracts with $0.70 risked
- Cash balance: $1.83
If $TEAM wins the league:
- Chelsea: loss of $1,348.17
- Man Utd: loss of $618.17
- Arsenal: gain of $2,131.83
- Newcastle: gain of $1,991.83
- Villa: gain of $3,411.83
- Blackburn: gain of $3,401.83
- Liverpool: loss of $1,048.17
- Man City: gain of $2,061.83
- West Ham: gain of $2,251.83
- Portsmouth: gain of $1,841.83
- Field: gain of $1,491.83
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