Print Story Exciting Fun with Betting Exchanges
By leviramsey (Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 09:28:47 PM EST) football, soccer, betting, betfair, quant (all tags)

After an international break in which it was made clear that England's rugby team accomplishes more in 4 years than their football team does in 40, the Bank That Can't Even Beat the Scots, Belgians, and Spaniards Premier League has returned to action. And that means that the time has come again to trade some contracts on Betfair, including the opening of a new position.

Positions in the "to win the Premier League" market from last time, along with current prices (buy prices rounded up, sell prices rounded down; prices quoted from Betfair on the 0-100 scale at $10 per contract)

  • CHELSEA: short 237 contracts (avg price: 20.9): buy price is now 16.2 => paper profit of $111.39
  • MAN UTD: short 193 contracts (avg price: 29.0): buy price is now 42.4 => paper loss of $258.62
  • ARSENAL: long 53 contracts (avg price: 21.7): sell price is now 26.3 => paper profit of $24.38
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts (avg price: 0.6): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $2.00
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts (avg price: 0.3): sell price is now 0.1 => paper loss of $3.84
  • BLACKBURN: long 179 contracts (avg price: 0.3): sell price is now 0.2 => paper loss of $1.79
  • LIVERPOOL: short 198 contracts (avg price: 18.9): buy price is now 13.6 => paper profit of $104.94
  • MAN CITY: long 45 contracts (avg price: 0.7): sell price is now 1.1 => paper profit of $1.80
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts (avg price: 0.2): UNPRICED => paper loss of $1.52

Net paper loss: $25.26

A reversal of fortunes, obviously, as the portfolio lost over 128 bucks since my last post. Man Utd, in the mind of the betting public, are set to steamroll to the title.

While I am not writing Surrey Reds off (as I foolishly did in the first dispatch from the front), I still favor Arsenal. Arsenal's intrinsic value, though, has declined slightly from last time, while Utd increased theirs by nearly 40%.

Latest projected table, based on point totals (may not correlate to intrinsic value):

  1. Arsenal: 96 pts
  2. Man Utd: 88 pts
  3. Man City: 84 pts
  4. Blackburn: 71 pts
  5. Portsmouth: 70 pts
  6. Liverpool: 66 pts
  7. Villa: 62 pts
  8. Newcastle: 62 pts
  9. Chelsea: 53 pts
  10. West Ham: 51 pts
  11. Everton: 43 pts
  12. Reading: 37 pts
  13. Sunderland: 35 pts
  14. Spurs: 35 pts
  15. Fulham: 34 pts
  16. Birmingham: 33 pts
  17. Boro: 30 pts
  18. Wigan: 29 pts
  19. Derby: 26 pts
  20. Bolton: 23 pts

With last weekend's results, the first club to be practically eliminated from the title race is Bolton. The safety total implied by the above table could also be the lowest such total in the history of top-flight football.

SELL 18 MAN UTD at 42.0. It should be predictable by now that this will be in my trades.

BUY 11 ARSENAL at 26.7. A pullback in price means a chance to pick up a few more contracts.

SELL 47 CHELSEA at 15.6. Chelsea have won two in a row with Petr Cech shutting out opponents over the past 270-plus minutes. However, their chances are still far more remote than this price implies. They're seven points behind and conceding a game in hand (not to mention that they've got a 13 goal deficiency in goal difference). Chelsea will have to win 3 more games than Arsenal down the stretch to have a prayer and will be counting on Manyoo stumbling as well. That's a hell of a parlay...

SELL 56 LIVERPOOL at 13.1. Can Rafa win the league? Scousers will have to wait till next year...

BUY 12 MAN CITY at 1.3. Unlike a few other clubs in the hunt for the non-Country-Club division of the Premier League, Man City supporters have little to fear regarding the FA poaching their manager.

BUY 35 PORTSMOUTH at 0.2. Pompey have played their way up to fifth place with fairly consistent play, yet aren't priced like a fifth place club should be.

Overall positions

  • CHELSEA: short 284 contracts with $2,270.38 risked
  • MAN UTD: short 211 contracts with $1,473.70 risked
  • ARSENAL: long 64 contracts with $143.87 risked
  • NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
  • VILLA: long 192 contracts with $4.42 risked
  • BLACKBURN: long 191 contracts with $5.21 risked
  • LIVERPOOL: short 254 contracts with $2,091.14
  • MAN CITY: long 57 contracts with $4.56 risked
  • WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
  • PORTSMOUTH: long 35 contracts with $0.70 risked
  • Cash balance: $1.83

If $TEAM wins the league:

  • Chelsea: loss of $1,348.17
  • Man Utd: loss of $618.17
  • Arsenal: gain of $2,131.83
  • Newcastle: gain of $1,991.83
  • Villa: gain of $3,411.83
  • Blackburn: gain of $3,401.83
  • Liverpool: loss of $1,048.17
  • Man City: gain of $2,061.83
  • West Ham: gain of $2,251.83
  • Portsmouth: gain of $1,841.83
  • Field: gain of $1,491.83
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Exciting Fun with Betting Exchanges | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Villa rated same as toon? by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #1 Tue Oct 23, 2007 at 11:32:35 PM EST

We are so getting into the Champions League next season.

If Mickey stays fit enough to play.

Chelskum - they'll implode now I think with the Special One gone.  I predict mass exodus of their talent in the Christmas transfer market.

Pool I think will be top 3, the Arse to win.  Salford Buccaneers to edge a top three spot after a great cup run.

I eagerly await next year when you can point and laugh at these predictions.

Whatever happened to... by leviramsey (2.00 / 0) #4 Sat Nov 03, 2007 at 04:38:28 PM EST

...the fortress on the Tyne?

4-1 Portsmouth?


Could I be the next Lee Abrams?
[ Parent ]
Like most of Gateshead by Breaker (4.00 / 1) #5 Sun Nov 04, 2007 at 09:55:06 AM EST
Yesterday I died a little inside.

[ Parent ]
Last night, by yicky yacky (4.00 / 1) #2 Wed Oct 24, 2007 at 03:43:11 AM EST

it sometimes seemed as if Arsenal are now playing football on an entirely new level. I don't recall ever seeing one team so completely dismember another at such a high standard before; it wasn't just the score, it was the way they did it. My personal benchmark for intelligent, fluid, pass-and-move playing is the Valencia side from about five or six years ago and, at times last night, the Gunners surpassed it.

There is a downside, though. Valencia's strength ultimately came their defence, which gave the attacking midfielders the freedom to go out and play, whereas Arsenal's strength is its midfield. As such, it's not hard to come to the conclusion that Arsenal can be got-at, which is why -- in the absence of Chelsea -- many people are quietly favouring Man U, as they're traditionally better at the blood-and-thunder stuff: Arsenal being seen as artisans, whereas Man U are better in a fight. Arsenal's current tactic is simply to overwhelm the opposition -- leaving them in a position where they have to chase the game, thus creating further openings -- but they haven't really played a team who can hold-out well enough to give them a dose of their own medicine. All this is just a long-winded way of saying that I don't think their defence is all that good (or, at least, not as good as results might make it seem); I don't think they've been tested enough to draw any decent conclusions yet. Whether they can hold out and stay strong is one of the big interesting questions remaining this season.

Vacuity abhors a vacuum.
Internet connection down since Saturday... by leviramsey (2.00 / 0) #3 Thu Nov 01, 2007 at 09:31:03 PM EST

So I'll be taking a miss on the trades, however, I will post my model's current valuations of the to-win contracts, along with projected points totals:

  1. Arsenal: 41% (89 pts)
  2. Man Utd: 35% (90 pts)
  3. Blackburn: 7% (74 pts)
  4. Man City: 6% (75 pts)
  5. Chelsea: 3% (69 pts)
  6. Portsmouth: 3% (69 pts)
  7. Liverpool: 3% (65 pts)
  8. Newcastle: 0.8% (55 pts)
  9. Villa: 0.7% (56 pts)
  10. WHam: 0.3% (49 pts)
  11. Everton: 0.2% (48 pts)
  12. Reading: 0.1% (46 pts)
  13. Small Heath: 0.02% (38 pts)
  14. Sunderland: 0.01% (32 pts)
  15. Fulham: 0.01% (31 pts)
  16. Spurs: 0.01% (32 pts)
  17. Boro: 0.01% (29 pts)
  18. Wigan: 0.01% (29 pts)
  19. Bolton: 0.000001% (24 pts)
  20. Derby: 0.000001% (24 pts)

30 points for safety...

Could I be the next Lee Abrams?
Exciting Fun with Betting Exchanges | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback