Not to make this a series about the troubles at Stamford Bridge, but the fact is that Chelsea's fall is the biggest story of the season thus far. The home draw to Fulham, combined with the rest of the Country Club division of the Premier League posting away wins led to a 30%-plus drop in Chelsea's price, along with increases in the prices of the other three (which is good on only 1 of 3 counts).
The model's belief in Manyoo increased, to the point where Yoonited are now second-favorite for the title (though Arsenal are overwhelming favorites with an over 70% projected chance of winning). Man City and Liverpool round out the top 4, with Villa, Blackburn, and Everton projecting for the [potential] UEFA Cup places.
SELL 24 MAN UTD at 36.2. While the Second Club in the Second City looks (perhaps surprisingly) to stay up, a club of United's stature should be able to do better than win 1-0. Still, the difference between the price and intrinsic value has slightly narrowed, and thus the reduced sale.
BUY 12 ARSENAL at 29.5. Some trepidation in my heart, as Arsenal might eventually have to play a league game outside of the M25. Still, this is a heartless pursuit for a heartless bastard, or something like that.
SELL 43 LIVERPOOL at 20.0. Liverpool are a difficult club to figure, perhaps because of Benitez's squad rotations.
SELL 56 CHELSEA at 11.9. Even though Chelsea's price plummets weekly, and goes through my hedge-out point, I still have to load up.
BUY 13 MAN CITY at 1.1. Not as confident as I've been in the past, but still worth a play.
BUY 36 BLACKBURN at 0.2. False indications on Blackburn from earlier, but there's still enough potential for an upward move from here.
BUY 36 VILLA at 0.2. While it was breathtaking seeing Villa choke at White Hart Lane, the fact is that away draws (against a club that will improve its form) aren't bad things.
In total, that's $1,028.75 risked, and the positions now stand at:
- CHELSEA: short 183 contracts with $1,415.24 risked
- MAN UTD: short 171 contracts with $1,231.36 risked
- ARSENAL: long 45 contracts with $89.46 risked
- NEWCASTLE: long 50 contracts with $2.67 risked
- VILLA: long 159 contracts with $3.43 risked
- BLACKBURN: long 146 contracts with $3.44 risked
- LIVERPOOL: long 138 contracts with $1,085.50 risked
- MAN CITY: long 52 contracts with $3.77 risked
- WEST HAM: long 76 contracts with $1.52 risked
- Cash balance: $163.61
If $CLUB wins the league:
- Chelsea: loss of $746.39
- Man Utd: loss of $626.39
- Arsenal: gain of $1,533.61
- Newcastle: gain of $1,583.61
- Villa: gain of $2,673.61
- Blackburn: gain of $2,543.61
- Liverpool: loss of $296.39
- Man City: gain of $1,603.61
- West Ham: gain of $1,843.61
- Anyone not listed: gain of $1,083.61
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