Print Story long day at work
Diary
By MillMan (Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 02:58:20 PM EST) (all tags)
now the tequila is calming my nerves. Ahhhhhhhhhhh.

Inside: side notes and commentary on the future competition of the mac mini that now exists on the periphery. Once again, it's not a troll.



Work
Had to manage several engineers, bosses expectations, several techs, and a field tech from a company whose products we buy at work today. Very draining, on top of only 4 hours of sleep last night. Went well considering all the myriad things that could have gone wrong.

Music
Ever have one of those nights where you throw in some music around 10pm and listen to it all night because it's just too good to turn off? That was my night last night. I was too excited to go to bed until 3am, and would have stayed up until dawn if I didn't have to work.

ATTENTION TI DAVE INFIDEL
My local megaliquormart sells Spaten. I'll pick up a sixer next time I'm there. I'll probably buy some Radeberger as well. Mmmmm, beer taste test.

Roomie M
Is getting my old PC. He decided he couldn't afford a laptop. So I gave him my old PC which I was going to dump anyway. All he had to buy was a monitor.

MacMini
Or is it MiniMac? I can't remember. I'm just never going to shut up about this thing. Today I'm going to tell you why the MacMini is not going to change the computing landscape, although I wish it could. Yesterday TheoEsc had a prediction in his diary:

No PC will come match the noise * price * volume score until 2007 or later.

TheoEsc is right in his noting of the appeal of small sized computers and low noise output. Indeed there are PC products that are already on the fringe of the MacMini in these categories. I think we'll see PCs at 0.9 by the end of the first quarter in '06. I think it depends on how well the macmini sells. The technology is already developed to compete with it. Some examples follow.

First, my ITX box is at 0.4 of the MacMini in the above equation. Same price (factoring in only what the macmini includes), 2.5x volume, and fanless (at 1GHz). It's also more feature rich, with digital audio out, CF reader, and a PCMCIA slot. It is strictly a hobbyist box, however. It takes a fair amount of computer knowledge to put together.

Then there is nano-itx, which is currently vaporware, although in theory coming out this quarter. The form factor is on par with the macmini, although its feature set is not as impressive. Coupled with the nanode case from hoojum, it looks better than the macmini (completely subjective of course).

Next is a dinky computer that is meant to serve the market in the developing word, the AMD PIC.

Somewhat larger but still much smaller than the old ATX box are these offerings from Shuttle and ASUS.

Some people have pointed out that there are no x86 chips that run particularly cool compared to the blazing infernos found in modern P4s and Athlons that will be needed to run small fanless computers. The C3s from Via now have fanless versions up to 1Ghz. AMD recently introduced its "Geode" line of low power processors, with the NX 1750 apparently able to run fanless at 1.4 GHz (although at 14 watts the heatsink is probably getting up there in size, nothing like the thermaltake fan on your P4, however).

None of these items are more impressive than the macmini, but with the Geode processor, the base is there for creating a real competitor. If the macmini takes off, there will be PC equivalents almost instantly.

However, I see little reason to think this will happen. I don't think these tiny computers will take much market share in the home PC market. The desktop market is slowly shrinking into gamers and power users only, who have no use from this "computer appliance." Everyone else, well, they're going to get laptops, if they don't already have one, for several reasons.

  1. They're cheap. The iBook is $1000. Given that, why should I even buy a mac mini? The ibook already has the monitor, keyboard, mouse, and wireless card built in. As such the macmini is priced as a near term solution only.
  2. Who is ever at home to use a desktop computer, or has zero reason to not bring a computer with them anywhere, ever? Maybe your parents? That's about it.
  3. Ubiquitous wireless internet access. Still a few years off, but pretty soon you'll be able get on the web pretty much anywhere in urban areas for cheap, if not free.
Computing is getting very close to a true mobile experience. Why own a corded computer? Laptops are cool, extremely powerful devices. Minimacs are a neat idea.

I hope they sell like hot cakes anyway. Consumers would benefit greatly from erosion in wintel market share. I do think the mac mini is aimed solely at a small segment of curious PC users. If Apple really wanted to take market share from wintel with this device, they would have priced it much cheaper as a loss leader. Some people argue that Apple is looking to become a consumer electronics company. That may be. If they are looking to steal market share, I think they will do it with cheap and efficient future generations of the iBook. Notebooks are the future, not desktops, regardless of their size.

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long day at work | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Monitors by ad hoc (4.00 / 1) #1 Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 04:23:38 PM EST
I have several old but in good shape ones if he wants to buy a used one.
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doh! by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #10 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 02:14:25 AM EST
Are they LCD? I put in the order for him last night. Still he spent less than half of what he first figured.

he's not trolling - That's just the truth.
[ Parent ]

No, they're old CRTs by ad hoc (2.00 / 0) #11 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 02:34:30 AM EST
One is a 15-inch ViewSonic 6, the other is a 17-inch ViewSonic 17GS.
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[ Parent ]

Good points but... by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 2) #2 Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 06:00:27 PM EST
...I disagree with most of them ;-)

Monitors: I've given away two small CRT monitors over the last couple of years. With difficulty: there are so many knocking around basements and garages it's hard to even give them away. Also bear in mind you can plug the Mac Mini into almost any flatscreen TV directly, and into a CRT if you have an adapter.

So, given the wide and easy availability of screens, why would a budget user double the price to get an iBook instead of a Mac Mini? The LCD screen is the most expensive component: there's a limit to how many redundant, small screens you can make people buy.

I like your mobility answer to the question... but I don't think it really applies to laptops. Nobody wants to lug a laptop around with them all day: smartphones and PDAs are where mobility's at. Now I'd prefer a full-sized keyboard as a touch-typist, but your average hunt-and-peck user doesn't get much advantage from it.

Also bear in mind battery life. A revolution in batteries might change things (fuel cells?), but there's no real sign that the slow progress will improve. Laptops are power-hungry: people wandering around with them seem to be in a perpetual quest for power points before the battery dies. You've got to plug them in somewhere, and at home or in the office if you can plug something in, you've probably got a screen nearby. A laptop's mobility advantage over a nanocomputer is pretty much confined to trains and coffee shops.

So, I disagree that notebooks are the future. I predict that they'll be increasingly squeezed between smartphones/PDAs and pocket-sized nanocomputers like the Mac Mini.

Re naming, I believe MacDonalds once had a plan for small MacDonalds burger kiosks to be called MiniMacs: I suspect they still own the name and that's why the clumsy name "Mac Mini" is officially used.

Finally, other people have applied the same logic why the Mac Mini should be sold as a loss leader. But you have to ask yourself: if that is the plan, given that it's sexy enough to sell at the higher price: would Jobs start off selling at a loss? Or would he sell it at the higher price to the early adopters, then drop the price some time after the launch buzz has worn off? I'm not certain the price won't drop further.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.


Pwning the Mac Mini by Orion Blastar (4.00 / 2) #3 Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 06:44:42 PM EST
The PC Makers should have an answer to the Mac Mini in about a year, tops.

I recall eMachines had an iMac type PC, but got sued by Apple to change the way it looked.

It shouldn't be too hard to make a PC Mini cost under $300 and pwn the Mac Mini. ;)


"I drank what?" - Socrates after drinking the Conium


The Mac Mini, pwned! by Orion Blastar (2.00 / 0) #20 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 04:25:21 PM EST
This $180 box is a bit taller and wider than a Mac Mini, but seems to be able to compete with it. It works like a radio as well.

"I drank what?" - Socrates after drinking the Conium
[ Parent ]

Re: x86 CPUs by LinDze (4.00 / 1) #4 Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 07:18:58 PM EST
Is the AMD Geode the same Geode that was from Nat Semi? If so, those really blew. Wouldnt count on it for anything except applications where power consumption is the only factor. And at that level you have to compete with Alchemy & XScale.

For a x86 direct competitor to the low power G4/5 Id look at the Dothan. These really stomp all over the G4s and still have a very nice TDP. Also, AMD is rumored to have a notebook-centric K8 stepping/chipset coming out 2H this year.

Most likely in this form factor Id see Dothan/Centrino chipsets bunged into a small form factor box. Via could bring it with a 1.2ish C3 nano itx, but they havnt really pushed this much yet. The dark horse option would be AMDs coming setup, mainly as its late to the game and I have no idea on the specs.

-Lin Dze
Arbeit Macht Frei


Excellent! by ti dave (4.00 / 1) #5 Thu Jan 20, 2005 at 09:30:50 PM EST
Don't forget to serve at the Teutonically-appropriate temperature.

Also, Weihenstephan and Hacker-Pschorr are acceptable substitutes.
Avoid the dopple-bocks, unless you enjoy malt liquor.

I don't care if people hate my guts; I assume most of them do.
The important question is whether they are in a position to do anything about it. --W.S. Burroughs



IAWTP by ad hoc (4.00 / 1) #12 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 02:39:37 AM EST
Although I like Weihenstephaner (esp. Dunkel) more than Hacker-Pschorr
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[ Parent ]

so by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #13 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 02:56:41 AM EST
where do you get your booze around here? This Marginetti's place (sp) in Allston/Brighton looks hard to beat for selection.

he's not trolling - That's just the truth.
[ Parent ]

Meds prevent booze consumption by ad hoc (2.00 / 0) #16 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 03:16:23 AM EST
however, for wine, I go to Brookline Liquor Mart in Allston, and for (good) beer I go to Downtown in Davis Sq. in Somerville.

If I'm in a hurry, there is a good store not far away that has a large selected, but not "huge" like the other two.

But Martignetti's or Kappys or Blanchards are all fine for liquor.
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[ Parent ]

heh by infinitera (4.00 / 1) #6 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 12:06:12 AM EST
/The desktop market is slowly shrinking into gamers and power users only, who have no use from this "computer appliance." /

Actually, I want an appliance I can game on. Still trying to find the right case and such for my requirements, but that's the goal. Something I can hook up to the HDTV and play various online games sans noise or console.

hey man, wanna go beat up some liberals on the daily kos? — rmg


teh autoformat is teh broken by infinitera (4.00 / 1) #7 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 12:06:33 AM EST

hey man, wanna go beat up some liberals on the daily kos? — rmg
[ Parent ]

yeah by MillMan (4.00 / 1) #8 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 01:39:02 AM EST
the media console is a certainly a big market for this kind of thing. Without a digital audio output, or even analog line out, they're not in that market. They could be with future offerings though. With their iPod / iTunes near monopoly I'm surprised they have taken the next obvious step.

he's not trolling - That's just the truth.
[ Parent ]

mac mini makes my home theater system cry by infinitera (4.00 / 1) #9 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 01:59:53 AM EST
Hmm. Monarch's offerings look very close to what I want.

hey man, wanna go beat up some liberals on the daily kos? — rmg
[ Parent ]

my ITX box rocks by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #14 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 03:08:13 AM EST
although it's best suited to audio, video is pushing it. Is that why you want a full P4 system with audible fans?

he's not trolling - That's just the truth.
[ Parent ]

the who what now? by infinitera (2.00 / 0) #15 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 03:11:54 AM EST
Athlon 64, I suspect the loudest fan will be on the Radeon X600.

hey man, wanna go beat up some liberals on the daily kos? — rmg
[ Parent ]

MiniMac by jimgon (2.00 / 0) #17 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 04:10:29 AM EST
Check out this week's Cringley.



movies? by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #18 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 05:25:38 AM EST
If you're cool with using headphones, I suppose. That thing is not a media box, although redesigning it to be one would be very simple.

he's not trolling - That's just the truth.
[ Parent ]

TV Speakers by jimgon (2.00 / 0) #19 Fri Jan 21, 2005 at 06:19:35 AM EST
If you can plug it into your TV, then you could use the speakers there.  Either that or they can sell you a quick upgrade kit.  Cringley is pretty paranoid, but so isn't Jobs.  He usually gets Jobs pretty close.

[ Parent ]

long day at work | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback