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Diary
By TheophileEscargot (Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 12:51:59 AM EST) (all tags)
LHusi drinks. Me. Web (warning: election-related MLPs).

Multitrollpoll!



LHusi drinks
Attendees: me, spiralx, gazbo, nobbystyles, TPD and stark.

Not the easiest place to find though. First you've got to find the right exit from the 2,227 at Bank stations, then work your way through the blank fractal geometries of that part of the City. Then work out that the apparently empty staircase marked "Restaurant" is actually the pub in question, then track your way through to the right place in three floors.

Actually not a bad pub, not too crowded on a Friday night, interesting decor. Beer selection a bit limited on that floor, but they've got more further up. Certainly makes round-buying a bit easier.

Tried to introduce gazbo to the music of William Shatner, but he didn't seem totally convinced. Not sure he actully heard it though: turned out the headphones' volume control was turned way down.

Usual stuff. There was some talk about us Southerners crashing up to one of the Northerners' meets. Not too sure about that though: I've heard it's awfully cold up there, and quite hard to get a Decaf Caramel-Mocha Frappucino at short notice; plus my new diet of gluten-free wheat, isotonic free-range chicken breast and retro-glycemic carb 'shakes might be a problem...

Me
Pretty busy at work. They're trying to push project A through before the great Christmas collapse. On paper we can do it assuming nothing else goes wrong, but I think there's just too much new, untested, high-risk stuff to manage it. Plus I've lost a week and a half after being moved to project B. Somewhat stressed. Plus the ever-present political battles are intensifying after our team grabbed one member of another team: their team leader is retaliating by complaining about us. Gah.

Since this is the guy who took our live, revenue producing service down for days after releasing a change without testing it, he'll probably get his arse handed to him; but all this crap takes up time.

Web (contains politics: so sue me)
Stolen from Memepool: Tired Japanese businessmen. That's me that is.

Stolen from Metafilter: interesting analysis of the Lancet's report on the alleged 100,000 Iraqis who died after the invasion. Turns out that including errors gives you a figure somewhere between 8,000 and 194,000. Even that relies on assumptions that contradict earlier Lancet research.

After that and their MMR fiaso, seems like the Lancet really needs to get its act together.

Some nice election analysis here and comment on it here.

True, it found the largest single block of voters identified "moral values" as the "most important election issue" -- a much cited factoid -- and that 80% of these respondents voted for Bush. But that hardly makes this election a triumph of theocracy. In the first place, "largest single block" turns out to mean 22%, meaning 78% of voters -- including two-thirds of Bush voters -- named some other issue

...fully one-third of Bush's vote came from non-Republicans -- the same proportion as the "moral values" voters.

...For example, we might also note that Bush's support increased significantly among women (at 48%, there was effectively no gender gap: indeed he led Kerry 55-44 among white women), among Hispanics (44%, a record for any Republican candidate), among blacks (okay, it was only 11%, up from 9% last time...), among Jews (at 25%, a one-third expansion), and among Catholics (where he beat Kerry, a Catholic, 52-47).

When a candidate draws increased numbers of votes from groups not traditionally identified with his party, we usually call that "broadening the base." So why the fascination with zombie hordes of theo-cons?

< Starry starry night | BBC White season: 'Rivers of Blood' >
Years of silence, not enough | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
"theo-cons" by MillMan (5.50 / 2) #1 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 01:52:15 AM EST
Good analysis. Personally I fear them because they're the ones driving the far right agenda, the ones that go to pro-life rallies and call their congressmen. They're the ones that truly align with Bush's views.

In the same way I say I don't have a candidate that represents my interests, I think most moderates and even conservatives don't have one either. The exit polls didn't include these kinds of questions:

Did you vote for who you did because the other candidate was unpalatable?
Do you feel that the candidate you voted for understands and represents your interests?
Do you feel there is a need for viable 3rd party candidates?
Do you want to see changes in the electoral system?

It would be interesting to hear the answers to those questions, but the media doesn't ask them because they won't do anything that rocks the boat. Questioning the system itself is a no-no, because you can't upset the advertisers.
This may be the first class war in history where the victims will die laughing.


Reforming the electoral system by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #2 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 02:10:15 AM EST
True: I don't think I've seen a much actual data on whether the US favours electoral reform.

The difficulty I think is that there are many different ways of "reform", so it's hard to poll on a yes-no level.

Offtopic: In UKia "electoral reform" is almost always used as a euphemism for dividing the vote amongst the parties with Proportional Representation. Which is annoying for me as I'd like some kinds of reform, but not that one. I'd like to see reform reducing the power of parties, where PR increases it. Banning the party central offices from overriding local party selections would be a good start.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Wierdest number by lm (6.00 / 2) #3 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 02:15:33 AM EST
From the CNN exit polls, 67% of voters thought the Kerry campaign unfairly attacked Bush vs. 60% of voters that thought the Bush campaign unfairly attacked Kerry.

The sliding scale on confidence that votes will be counted accurately is also kind of interesting. As confidence slowly diminished, voters were more and more likely to vote for Kerry.

Another curious number is that people who were very worried about terrorism favored Kerry by about a 10% margin, but people who were somewhat worried about terrorism favored Bush by about a 10% margin.

The overwhelming sense I get from looking at all of the questions is that the Kerry did a campaign of not only defining itself, but of framing current events. From the poll numbers it looks like the majority of voters simply didn't buy into the picture of the state of affairs painted by the Kerry campaign.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic


Interesting by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #4 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 02:33:52 AM EST
I see that there was a small advantage to Kerry (52/45) in people who decided on the day. Maybe there is a degree of truth in the "undecideds break for the incumbent" thing: just not enough to influence the result over other factors.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

ah ha! by tps12 (3.00 / 0) #12 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 05:50:11 AM EST
DU was saying that 2:1 for Kerry would have been the worst case, historically. That perfectly explains the difference between what I was expecting and what happened.

Also, your analysis of who this year's most important swing group was matches Campaign Desk's.

[ Parent ]

Incumbent rule by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #13 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 06:08:25 AM EST
The only study DU cited showing a statistically significant "incumbent rule" was one of State and County races. I suspect if the effect is real it occurs when people really don't know anything about the challenger, so they judge purely by the incumbent.

Don't think it really applies strongly for Presidential elections, where almost everyone has enough idea of the challenger to decide which he hates the least.

While it got a lot of attention on DailyKos, there wasn't much evidence cited. There was one presidential study showing about a 1% swing to the challenger... but with 3% errors on most polls that's not very convincing. If the effect was as consistently strong as 2:1 I think it would show up pretty strongly, in non-US polls as well. I can't see the effect being that strong and consistent while being so invisible worldwide.

I don't know how much to trust this exit poll data either: presumably there are some biases in who bothers to respond. 52 : 45 might still be roughly even. Also that might just be an aspect of this particular race, not a general rule.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

incumbent rule by martingale (3.00 / 0) #18 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 11:57:16 AM EST
I suspect if the effect is real it occurs when people really don't know anything about the challenger, so they judge purely by the incumbent.
By the same token, one would have to say that when people really don't know anything about what's going on in Iraq, they will judge purely by the incumbent idea (ie the war must continue as is).
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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[ Parent ]

Hmmm by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #20 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 07:34:54 PM EST
Not sure that's a good analogy. I think with all the different positions to vote for on a US ballot paper, people might well not have even heard the name of some of the challengers before, so they end up voting just based on the incumbent.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

what you're saying by martingale (3.00 / 0) #22 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 07:55:30 PM EST
"Go with the devil you know".

So what's the devil you know in regard to Iraq? The other devil is apparently some islamic terrorist lair headed by some guy nobody's ever heard of yet but he'll be mean and gass his own people at a minimum. The devil you know is to send in soldiers.
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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[ Parent ]

I think I'm confusing you by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #23 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 08:08:34 PM EST
The point of the "incumbent rule" as stated by DailyKos crowd is that undecideds always go for the challenger, not the incumbent.

My argument is that if that effect exists, it's confined to smaller elections, like state and county elections.

I really don't know how you're tying Iraq into this.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

I see by martingale (6.00 / 1) #24 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 09:29:24 PM EST
I thought you meant your comment as a general rule: when people make decisions, they prefer to go with known quantities even if it's likely to not pay off. Forget it.
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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[ Parent ]

Two more post-election MLP's by cam (6.00 / 1) #5 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 02:36:28 AM EST
Hartcher thinks that it was terrorism that got Bush across the post from exit polling.
"... the people who voted according to "moral issues" made up about the same share of the vote four years ago, and voted in about the same 4:1 ratio in favour of Bush four years ago, too. In other words, the role of the moral values vote was a constant. It did not explain Bush's ability to move a decisive bloc of voters into the Republican column."

Harold Meyerson thinks it is increased voter turn out of conservative voters;

"In 2000 Democrats constituted 39 percent of the electorate and Republicans 35 percent. This year Democrats and Republicans each constituted 37 percent of the electorate. Four years ago, moderates made up 50 percent of the voting public and conservatives 29 percent. On Tuesday the moderate share of the electorate declined to 45 percent, while conservatives boosted their share to 34 percent."

Both links require registration IIRC. I am not fully certain it was any one thing. About the only certainty is that there is a definite urban/rural divide with suburbia being purple. For whatever reason Democrats speak better to urban issues and Republicans to rural issues.

cam
Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic


since the vote was close by MillMan (6.00 / 1) #7 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 03:33:36 AM EST
it's easy to say "issue x put Bush over the top." They're all probably correct to a degree.

I think people forget the connection of this election to 9-11. If Bush hadn't invaded Iraq, and instead conducted low level surgical strikes elsewhere in the middle east and central asia to root out terrorists, I think he would have won this election 70 - 30 easily.

I'll also point out that the urban / rural divide was less stark this time than it was in the last election. What should scare democrats more than anything is that Bush made gains across EVERY conceivable demographic.
This may be the first class war in history where the victims will die laughing.
[ Parent ]

I think you're right wrt Iraq by lm (6.00 / 1) #8 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 03:46:05 AM EST
I also think it significant that less than a week after the election, US forces are finally amassing to take Fallujah.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

The problem with elections by ucblockhead (3.00 / 0) #11 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 05:27:52 AM EST
I don't think it is entirely fair to blame one side for this as, I suspect, the other side would have done much the same in the same circumstances. One failing of democracy is that it makes it hard for leaders to make tough decisions in the election season. (Which in the US is 1/4 or more of the time.)

So while I'm certain that Bush held back the troops to avoid high casaulties right before the election, I have no doubt that pretty much anyone in power would have done the same.

In the end, it's the core reason why politicians lie. They lie because in the end they know that if they tell the truth, they won't get elected. In 1916 Wilson ran under the phrase "he kept us out of the war" and once in office, did what he thought was required. They all do. So while I honestly think that Bush is incompetent, I don't think that there's much point of accusing him of lying to get elected. So did Wilson. So did Roosevelt. So did Johnson and Nixon and pretty much everyone else. I've no doubt that of Kerry were elected, his plans would have changed pretty quickly.

In many ways, I'm more scared of the ones who don't lie as the truth would lose elecctions.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
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I think I may have mis-communicated my point by lm (3.00 / 0) #14 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 06:50:20 AM EST
I wasn't trying to paint this as a deception per se. Only that I don't think that the US public has yet realized all of the consequences invading Iraq. It was the flip side of MillMan's point that the war cost Bush a tremendous amount of political capital and as the war plays itself out it will cost him more and more.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

No they didn't by ucblockhead (3.00 / 0) #15 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 07:51:12 AM EST
Mostly because they don't really want to know. A candidate that told the truth wouldn't have gotten elected. (IMHO, the truth is that we are going to be spending money and troops on Iraq well into 2010.) My own suspicion is that both candidates knew this certainly well. But that's the cost of the office. I'm sure from Bush's perspective, it's worth it because it's his successor's problem, not his. He never has to run for office again.

I was mostly just making my own add-on point. Perhaps because I'm feeling very cynical these days.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
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It's getting very hard not to be cynical by lm (6.00 / 1) #17 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 09:36:27 AM EST
C'est la vie.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

I agree by martingale (6.00 / 1) #19 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 12:22:54 PM EST
I've said this type of thing in other comments before. Iraq is a far away war with no consequences to the instigators of it. Those who can decide to stop have no incentive to do so, because it doesn't affect them, beyond some nebulous increased deficit. This is true for all colonial type wars.

Vietnam became an issue only when turmoil at home became uncomfortable enough to make people aware of its cost (to them). Same was true with France/Algeria, Russia/Afghanistan, etc.

It's telling that even now, both major parties in America are urging calm, restraint, and no division among the population. Which of course implies that US foreign policy is not worth getting upset about.

We have two examples now of increased majority elections (US, Australia) where the populations aren't affected by their government's policies. We have one example (Spain) where the population was directly affected by its government's policy.

I still maintain that Blair will lose only if Al Quaida performs a series of attacks in Britain. Anything else and the British people will continue to support him.
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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[ Parent ]

Turnout by ucblockhead (6.00 / 2) #6 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 03:03:21 AM EST
Apparently the "young people didn't turn out" meme is a bit of a myth. Voter turnout among the 18-24 set was 10% higher than in 2000 (and the highest for any election since 18 year olds got the vote.) The reason it didn't sway the election (given that the under 34 demographic went for Kerry) is that turnout increased even more among the over 60 set.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman


I don't know if I buy that by lm (6.00 / 1) #9 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 04:52:37 AM EST
Turnout increased across the board. The `youth' vote was still pretty anemic. In one class on Thursday, we spent the first few minutes speaking about the anti gay marriage amendment that was on the Ohio ballot. About half the kids in the class were like `Oh my gawd! THAT was on the ballot?' This is at a small university that had a polling station right smack in the middle of the student union and that had had multiple voter registration drives.

That said, I don't know that even if the youth vote had turned out it would have changed much. The CNN exit polls show a 54/45 split for the youth vote in favor of Kerry. In Ohio, you would have needed an additional million youth voters to change the election.

The two groups that did appear to make a difference were hispanics and white women. The only significant difference between various voting blocks (according to exit polls) between this election and 2000 were in those two groups. Hispanics voted in favor of Bush 1% more in 2004 than in 2000. White women voted in favor of Bush 2.5% more in 2004 than in 2000.

My guess is that the issues perceived by these two groups as moral values really did make a difference. The Kerry campaign failed to define the race in terms of issues important to these two groups and the gravitation of these two groups toward moral issues pulled them slightly toward Bush.

I also noticed that now that the election is over, US troops are gearing up to go into Fallujah. I can't help but think that they didn't go into Fallujah last month solely because a high number of casualties are expected.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

yep. by dev trash (6.00 / 1) #10 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 04:56:49 AM EST
I kept telling the dKos people, that GOTV works both ways.  They wouldn't listen, the assumed all the people they told to get out there and vote would be voting Kerry.

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Click
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LHusi Drinks by stark (6.00 / 1) #16 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 09:18:44 AM EST
Very interesting nice to meet you all... <grin>

Seriously, a good night and a wonderfully eccentric choice of venue. I particularly liked the "been here since before you were born" style of interior decor.

Re. William Shatner - is this the new album produced by Ben Folds? If so, I've heard one track (the version of Pulp's "Common People") - not bad, not good, but some strange place inbetween...
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U.S. Patent 5443036 concerns a device for encouraging a cat to exercise by chasing a light spot.


Yes, that one by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #21 Sat Nov 06, 2004 at 07:41:10 PM EST
Quite a diverse album: they got good musicians and writers in to make some genuinely good stuff. Well worth "sharing".

Avoid his earlier album except for comedy value though.

Wonder how old that pub was. Those tiles on the staircase seemed pretty lurid.
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Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

nobbystyles by nebbish (3.00 / 0) #25 Sun Nov 07, 2004 at 09:30:22 PM EST
Bloody hell that's a blast from the past. How is he?

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It's political correctness gone mad!


isn't he j--- t-- l-----'s flatmate? by garlic (3.00 / 0) #26 Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 02:20:39 AM EST

Suck it
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Who's? by nebbish (3.00 / 0) #27 Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 03:06:16 AM EST
Sorry, this is getting a bit cryptic, aqnd if that's someone's real name then I don't know any here. Apart from my own, and someone else's.

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It's political correctness gone mad!
[ Parent ]

Years of silence, not enough | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback