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We won't know full results for a while, but..

By TheophileEscargot (Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 07:23:49 PM EST) (all tags)

My prediction:
Bush 51%
Kerry 48%
Nader/Other 1%

CNN results so far (3:11 EST):
Bush (54,894,768) 51%
Kerry (51,198,208) 48%
Nader (373,486 ) 1%

Shame really: I would (mildly) have preferred a Kerry victory.

As I've been saying for ages: getting rid of an incumbent is hard. Getting rid of a tax-cutting incumbent is harder. Getting rid of a tax-cutting war president incumbent is the next thing to impossible: Kerry did very well to push it so close.

Now with a large budget deficit to clear up, as well as tricky and un-media-friendly nation-building to do in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's going to be a very painful next term for Bush, and it won't help the image of the party in power.

Tentative predictions: Democrat wins in 2008 and 2012. But it's a little early to be certain, even for me...

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We won't know full results for a while, but.. | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback

tentatively by martingale (3.00 / 0) #1 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 07:30:11 PM EST

I don't think American elections will be as interesting in 2008, certainly nowhere near as pivotal as this one. I think America is going to become very isolated in the next 4 years, and we might see the start of a new cold war of sorts. 54M Americans can't be wrong.
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$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

WIPO by thunderbee (3.00 / 0) #2 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 07:32:38 PM EST

2008 - election cancelled under martial law.
1012 - election illegal, president chosen by richest corporations, stays in power as longs as said corporations are ok with him. Being a Democrat can get you deportation to Guantanamo.

I predict by Rogerborg (6.00 / 2) #3 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 07:35:26 PM EST

That every liberal on the face of the planet will suddenly develop 20:20 hindsight and explain at great length and in a solemn world weary voice why it was such a hard challenge and why they did so well, considering, and why they never really expected to win anyway, despite all the whoopin' and a-hollerin' on Monday. See DailyKo5 for a perfect template.

And it is funny. Oh my gosh, it is side splittingly funny to watch.

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Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.

But the Incumbent Rule proves Kerry will win! by TheophileEscargot

(6.00 / 2) #5 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 08:04:30 PM EST

Oh, how we laughed.

Still not sure if I was totally trolled, or if some people actually believed that "most undecideds break for the challenger" thing. They never really had any evidence for it, apart from one dodgy study of small county and state elections.
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Hehehe, there's a new front page at DailyKo5 by Rogerborg (6.00 / 2) #11 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:27:11 PM EST

'Don't Mourn, Organize'

That's the spirit! Hillary will save us! We never really wanted to win this one anyway.

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Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.
[ Parent ]

My fave line: by ti dave (3.00 / 0) #12 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:51:14 PM EST

This descent into despair and irrationality and surrender puts icing on the Republican victory cake.

And really, who doesn't love cake?

I don't care if people hate my guts; I assume most of them do.
The important question is whether they are in a position to do anything about it. --W.S. Burroughs
[ Parent ]

Well, it's all for the best by Rogerborg (3.00 / 0) #13 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 11:01:26 PM EST

If the liberals had won, their celebrations would have involved mealy mouthed cake, and who likes that?

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Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.
[ Parent ]

Locusts. by ti dave (3.00 / 0) #14 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 11:23:04 PM EST

However, we'll never know, because locusts were dis-enfranchised prior to the '96 elections.

I don't care if people hate my guts; I assume most of them do.
The important question is whether they are in a position to do anything about it. --W.S. Burroughs
[ Parent ]

: Only the COMMUNAL sort by Rogerborg (6.00 / 1) #16 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 11:41:18 PM EST

The proud solitary wasteland cricket in its fortified lair with overlapping beaten zones and patrolling Doberants is still more than welcome.

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Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.
[ Parent ]

cake! by dev trash (6.00 / 1) #33 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:30:33 PM EST

Ice cream cake is the best. I had that for my birthday. My new favorite cake.

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Click
[ Parent ]

Some of them will by Gully Foyle (4.00 / 1) #9 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:32 PM EST

The others will say that secretly they thought they would lose, but were whoopin' and a-hollerin' to make sure that people wouldn't get disheartened and would go and vote.

Gee, this spin thing is easy.

[ Parent ]

it's funny to joke about by MillMan

(6.00 / 1) #18 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:09:11 AM EST

until the christians come to convert you next!
This may be the first class war in history where the victims will die laughing.
[ Parent ]

Funny? by Tonatiuh (3.00 / 0) #39 Fri Nov 05, 2004 at 11:28:26 AM EST

No it is not.

Political parties in the left are so disorganized that is really worrying.

They are completely unable to articulate a coherent political message, they are ashamed of their own ideology and convictions, if they have any left.

It would be tremendously amusing if it was not for the fact that people are dying everyday as a consequence of the Neocons fundamentalists running amok in the world.

I am just bracing for what they are going to do now that they have a real democratic mandate.

I think most people will not find today's situation funny at all in 3 or 4 years.

[ Parent ]

My only predictions by blixco (3.00 / 0) #4 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 07:36:08 PM EST

are tainted by anger at the apparent idiocy of the majority of my country.

Goddamn morons. The lot of 'em. Me included for being so worked up about it: I've been telling people for a year that Bush would win, because Bush never loses. He lost the last one, and won. And no one called him on it except for a few liberal cranks who preach only to the choir.

And that choir is neutered, weak, and incapable.

Fuck. It's 2:35am. I can't find sleep in any of this anger.
---------------------------------
Journeying through the world
To and fro, to and fro
Cultivating a small field.
-basho

The only thing I don't understand by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #6 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 08:26:20 PM EST

...is why Americans apparently find it so difficult to actually count the votes.
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg

That puzzles me too. by ti dave (3.00 / 0) #7 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 08:29:55 PM EST

Here in Washington, a full two hours after the polls closed, only 23% of the votes had been counted.
Very odd.

I don't care if people hate my guts; I assume most of them do.
The important question is whether they are in a position to do anything about it. --W.S. Burroughs
[ Parent ]

are you crazy? by martingale (3.00 / 0) #8 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 08:32:34 PM EST

There's like 105 million voters you know. The logistics alone are staggering. Of course, I don't expect you to realize this if you're used to third world type mini-elections like in India or Indonesia.
--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
[ Parent ]

A few reasons why it takes so long by lm (3.00 / 0) #15 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 11:24:46 PM EST

Generally speaking, when polls `close' it really means that no one else can get in line. Everyone already in line can usually still queue until actually casting their ballot. In Ohio, polls closed at 19:30, but in at least one county, the last voter didn't cat his or her ballot until 2:30.
I think you're forgetting how expansive the US is. For many rural precincts, it can take several hours to get the ballots to the county seat where they will be counted.
Federal law states that provisional ballots can't be counted for over a wee following the elections to give time to verify the registration status of the voters.
Some states allow military absentee ballots to come in up to ten days late as long as they are post marked by election day.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

Wow by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #17 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 01:40:55 AM EST

Generally speaking, when polls `close' it really means that no one else can get in line. Everyone already in line can usually still queue until actually casting their ballot. In Ohio, polls closed at 19:30, but in at least one county, the last voter didn't cat his or her ballot until 2:30.

Okay, so polling stations are under-dimensioned?

I think you're forgetting how expansive the US is. For many rural precincts, it can take several hours to get the ballots to the county seat where they will be counted.

Then why the heck not count them in situ and phone in the results?
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg
[ Parent ]

Well, by zantispam (3.00 / 0) #19 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:13:16 AM EST

Then why the heck not count them in situ and phone in the results?

Ninety-nine for Bush.
One-hundred for Bush.
beep-boop-boop, beep-beep-boop, beep-beep-boop-beep.
Ring. Ring.
Hello, County Seat? Yes, I'd like to report one-hundred votes for Nader. I mean, Bush. No, not Nader. The other one. No, Not-Bush. Not Bush. I mean Bush.

Etcetera and so on and so forth.

What's Yer Inner Pirate?
brought to you by The Official Talk Like A Pirate Web Site. Arrrrr!
[ Parent ]

Okay by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #21 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:51:29 AM EST

so the reason is that the election officials are incompetent?
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg
[ Parent ]

No. by zantispam (3.00 / 0) #23 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:37:46 AM EST

Calling would be an additional point of failure.

What's Yer Inner Pirate?
brought to you by The Official Talk Like A Pirate Web Site. Arrrrr!
[ Parent ]

I still don't see the problem by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #24 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:52:28 AM EST

Wake me up when America joins us in the 21st century.
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg
[ Parent ]

Sure thing by zantispam (6.00 / 1) #26 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 04:12:24 AM EST

You want to sleep through us moving through the 19th and 20th centuries too, or should I wake you for those?

What's Yer Inner Pirate?
brought to you by The Official Talk Like A Pirate Web Site. Arrrrr!
[ Parent ]

so which is it.... by dev trash (3.00 / 0) #35 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:34:14 PM EST

Electronic voting or not?

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Click
[ Parent ]

: around here by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #37 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 08:35:41 PM EST

pencil smudges on old-fashioned paper works fine.
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg
[ Parent ]

no. by dev trash (3.00 / 0) #36 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:34:18 PM EST

tired.

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Click
[ Parent ]

under staffed? by dev trash (3.00 / 0) #34 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:32:52 PM EST

Yes, yes and HELL YES. My place had one table with the master book of voters. It had 10 voting booths though. Half were being used at any one time. If they had 2 master books....it moves along much faster.

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Click
[ Parent ]

: neat by TurboThy (3.00 / 0) #38 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 08:42:26 PM EST

my local polling station has 6 or 8 queues for what corresponds to your "master book" (Since we have a central state registry of all people here, no such things is actually needed. You just bring your voting slip and hand it in at the station.).
__
You can't fix anything, you can't change anything, so just tell them that everything is A. The Fuck OK. —Rogerborg
[ Parent ]

In some ways by nebbish (3.00 / 0) #10 Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:31:04 PM EST

I'm quite looking forward to watching the Bush administration get ripped to shreds over the next couple of years.

Well, there has to be something.

--------
It's political correctness gone mad!

who knows by MillMan

(3.00 / 0) #20 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:17:03 AM EST

Tentative predictions: Democrat wins in 2008 and 2012. But it's a little early to be certain, even for me...

It is impossible to say. The democrats are fractured, but at the same time, as a pundit here said, "nothing will cure the democrat's problems faster than 10% unemployment."
This may be the first class war in history where the victims will die laughing.

I bow to your superior prognostication (nt) by ucblockhead

(6.00 / 3) #22 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:32:34 AM EST

---
[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman

With one caveat by ucblockhead

(6.00 / 1) #27 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 04:28:35 AM EST

This came very close to being another instance of the popular vote not matching the electoral vote.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]

true, but.. by infinitera (3.00 / 0) #28 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 05:36:44 AM EST

Counting on turnout is embarrassing.

you are intellectually lazy and dishonest, unscrupulous, and in short lower than a troll — in adequate nathan
[ Parent ]

: Frankly by ucblockhead (6.00 / 1) #30 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 06:10:51 AM EST

I'm pissed off at the youth of this country to the extent that I hope the little bastards do get drafted.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]

Thanks by TheophileEscargot

(3.00 / 0) #29 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 05:45:42 AM EST

I let you guys forget it in a decade or two ;-)

Was really not looking forward to my own public apology if I'd gotten it wrong...
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

Don't worry by ucblockhead

(6.00 / 1) #31 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 06:11:44 AM EST

I am hereby admitting that I suck at predicting elections are therefore won't ever do it again in public.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]

: You just need more practice by TheophileEscargot (3.00 / 0) #32 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 06:22:22 AM EST

Start with next year's UKian election: it's easier when you don't have a personal stake.
You do need a fairly thick skin though...
--
Butch and Petey are harsh and unforgiving in their estimation of female beauty.
[ Parent ]

khead beat me to it by infinitera (6.00 / 2) #25 Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 03:57:59 AM EST

But this crow is delicious! May I have some more?

you are intellectually lazy and dishonest, unscrupulous, and in short lower than a troll — in adequate nathan

We won't know full results for a while, but.. | 39 comments (39 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback

-	2008 Republican	11%
-	2008 Democrat	88%
-	2012 Republican	22%
-	2012 Democrat	55%


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