Bring the Ruckus

Well, after yesterday's dainty little social gatherings from groups C and D which saw Mexico fail to beat the Portuguese and Holland whisper sweet nothings in Argentine ears, today we have four games which actually mean something.

I'll have an 'E' please, Bob

Group E's show-downs (both at 1400 UTC) consist of The Czech Republic VS. Italy (in Hamburg) and Ghana VS U.S.A. (in Nuremburg - the newspapers are still dying to use JTL's 'Nuremburg Rally' headline, so maybe the U.S. can oblige). Group E currently looks like this:

+---+----------------+---+----+-----+
|   |                | P | GD | PTS |
+---+----------------+---+----+-----+
| 1 |     Italy      | 2 | 2  |  4  |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 2 | 1  |  3  |
| 3 |     Ghana      | 2 | 0  |  3  |
| 4 |      USA       | 2 | -3 |  1  |
+---+----------------+---+----+-----+

What does this mean? Well, as can be seen, anyone can qualify and anyone can be knocked out. Theoretically, any one of three can win the group and any one of three can finish bottom, but that relies on certain teams racking up (English) cricket scores. So what are the permutations? Well, they are too convoluted to go into fully, but they basically break down like this:

• Italy will win the group if they beat the Czechs. They will still qualify (and possibly still win the group) if they only get a tie.
• The Czech Republic will win the group if they beat the Italians and Ghana fail to beat the U.S. by one goal more than they score in doing so. They will still qualify if they tie with the Italians provided Ghana fail to beat the U.S. or the U.S. fail to beat Ghana by a basketball score.
• Ghana will win the group if they beat the U.S. and Italy tie with the Czechs, OR if the Czechs beat Italy and they go postal on the U.S.A. They will qualify if there is a winner in the ITA v, CZE game and they beat the U.S.
• The U.S.A. can't win the group (by my reckoning), but they can still qualify if: they beat Ghana and Italy beat the Czechs, or they beat Ghana by a truckload (5 goals, I think) and Italy and the Czechs tie, or they beat Ghana by the enough goals and the Czechs beat the Italians (under this scenario, the more of an arse-kicking the Czechs hand out, the less the US have to score).

I've heard the suspicion that the U.S. will beat Ghana but that the Italians and Czechs will conspire against them. This is risky for the mooted conspirators because, if ever true, it leaves the Czechs vulnerable to a Ghana win. This is looking like a really tough group and, in each game, at least one, if not both, of the teams have to win to make sure of their continued participation.

F you!

Group F's show-downs (both at 1900 UTC) consist of Japan versus Brazil (in Dortmund) and Croatia VS Australia (in Stuttgart). Group F currently looks like this:

+---+-----------+---+----+-----+
|   |           | P | GD | PTS |
+---+-----------+---+----+-----+
| 1 |   Brazil  | 2 | 3  |  6  |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 0  |  3  |
| 3 |  Croatia  | 2 | -1 |  1  |
| 4 |   Japan   | 2 | -2 |  1  |
+---+-----------+---+----+-----+

What does this mean? This is slightly differenent to Group E. Whatever happens, Brazil are through, very probably as group winners. The others can all qualify, with the Aussies having an outside chance of catching Brazil. There is some incentive to win this group, as it would mean that you'd probably avoid the defensively-solid Italians in the next round. This may change as the teams in this group will already know the results of group E before they start.

• Brazil can only fail to win the group if they lose to Japan and Australia wallop Croatia by a large number of goals. They have qualified anyway.
• Australia will win the group if they lay the smackdown on Croatia and Brazil lose to Japan. They will qualify if they beat Croatia, or if they tie with Croatia and Japan fail to beat Brazil by three goals.
• Croatia can't win the group but will qualify if they beat the Aussies.
• Japan can't win the group but still qualify if they beat Brazil by a ton and Australia and Croatia tie. All but numerically, they are essentially out.

Plenty to play for all round. Come on, you colonials!

[I knocked this up for some friends and family and figured some HuSites may be interested. Most of this may be wrong]