End of the American political establishment?

Yes   1 vote - 25 %
No   3 votes - 75 %
 
4 Total Votes
Declines and falls by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #1 Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 06:43:51 PM EST
Probably best to wait until after Super Tuesday before writing analyses of failures.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
November by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #3 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 12:05:55 AM EST
He reckons Hillary Clinton will get the nomination but lose to Trump.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
He's dreaming by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #13 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 04:11:15 PM EST
See Trumps "favorability" rating among independents is currently -27%.

Trump's very good at getting a certain subset of right wing voters to support him, but it's at the expense of basically every other group.

The Democrats already start with an Electoral College advantage.

Pull quote:

Then there is the fact that Democrats have become increasingly dominant among Hispanics, which has turned states such as Nevada, New Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Colorado, much more friendly to their side. Consider this: In 2004, George W. Bush won New Mexico over John F. Kerry. About a decade later, neither party spent a dime in the Land of Enchantment, and Obama won it by 10 points. (This trend, if not disrupted by Republicans, will make Arizona and Georgia potentially competitive by the 2020 election.)

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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]
So by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #14 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 04:44:09 PM EST
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/02/karp-bernie-sanders-electability-clinton-republicans-trump-election/

"Clinton’s appeal among these non-Democratic voters is extremely limited. Just 29 percent of independents hold a favorable view of her, according to an average of three YouGov surveys taken since January; over 61 percent view her unfavorably."

So at -32, Trump is still more popular among independents than Hillary Clinton...
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
I think it's highly unlikely that Trump could win by lm (4.00 / 2) #16 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 08:52:54 PM EST
But I also think that he, and Cruz, would be so horrible as president that I do not want to take that chance.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]
Jacobinmag by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #17 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 10:35:32 PM EST
Hardly an unbiased source, but someone with an agenda to sell, notably, "Clinton not electable so vote Sanders".

fivethirtyeight.com is far more likely to be objective.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman

[ Parent ]
Indeed by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #18 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 11:58:28 PM EST
Fivethirtyeight.com on Trump in November 2015. I'm only citing Jacobin for the YouGov polls.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
Over the weekend by wumpus (4.00 / 1) #20 Mon Feb 29, 2016 at 03:47:44 PM EST
I'm pretty sure they were reporting a >10% favorability of Hillary over Trump (more or less current). Can't find it now.

One side I haven't heard explained is the Republican Party doners' side. They cough up billions to choose a certain candidate, and suddenly the voters decide on a candidate that doesn't need their money. Will they let their bought candidates fall in line with Trump (and worry about "the next Trump" keeping them from power) or stop things here and now (which looks like throwing the election for Hillary).

On the other side of things, while Bernie is making a good show of not needing such money, he still doesn't appear to have a chance.

Wumpus

[ Parent ]
Hard to know what they think by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #21 Mon Feb 29, 2016 at 11:22:13 PM EST
I thought this post on (super-right-wing) Reason.com was interesting. Basically argues that Trump is economically to the left of Clinton, and more likely to able to build bipartisan majorities in Congress while Hillary will be gridlocked, so in the interests of small government they prefer Hillary Clinton.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
After Trump's performance on Meet the Press by wiredog (4.00 / 2) #19 Mon Feb 29, 2016 at 06:58:22 AM EST
He's going to get a majority of rural, white, southern men, and that's it. Maybe a plurality of rural white southern women. Not enough to win the election, or even make it relatively close. It's been fun watching the Republican party freak out over the past week as they contemplate the effect on the down-ballot races. Trump probably won't cost them the House, but could cost them the Senate. At which point the (Republican) Senate's refusal to consider any Obama judicial nominations will look like a really bad strategic move.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)

[ Parent ]
Greer's piece is kind of odd by lm (4.00 / 1) #6 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 08:27:16 AM EST
I need to go back and read it more closely. But some things strike me as odd. For example, when was the last time that any contested primary was actually a cakewalk for a candidate?

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]
I also think it's odd... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #7 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 10:39:44 AM EST
to assume that a Trump candidacy won't motivate plenty of Dem voters. There aren't that many people who voted for Obama who will automatically switch to Trump.

[ Parent ]
A few of these articles have an odd dynamic by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #9 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 11:11:14 AM EST
Of ringing true but not quite adding up overall.

Describing Hillary Clinton as like a woman in front of a vending machine hit home though ...

Iambic Web Certified

[ Parent ]
That one works both ways by lm (4.00 / 1) #10 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 02:19:10 PM EST
I've me a lot of people who think Trump is a moron, a boor, and unsuited to be president but have told me that they'll vote for Trump over Clinton.

Clinton has a lot of work to do to overcome the bugaboo that certain elements on the right have made of her. Just mentioning her name in a fundraising letter is guaranteed to up the intake of donations.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]
Oh, no question HC has a lot of downsides... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #11 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 03:00:33 PM EST
but I don't think it's a sure thing for Trump as yet.

[ Parent ]
Personally, I will still be surprised ... by lm (4.00 / 1) #12 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 03:54:13 PM EST
... if Trump manages to walk away with the GOP nomination. Not very surprised, mind you. Unlike the 2008 and 2012 cycles for the GOP there's no upside for last of the remaining candidates to drop out.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]
Housing by Herring (4.00 / 1) #2 Sat Feb 27, 2016 at 07:21:35 PM EST
Again, I was reading that Private Eye. It claims that the few major property developers are sitting on over 650,000 plots with planning permission. At least 150,000 of those inside London. I gather from elsewhere that investment funds are also sitting on land banks as it's a popular asset class at the moment.

We have, in the club, a very vocal (online) right-winger who claims that all property prices, low wages etc. are down to immigration. I haven't got the energy to argue anymore.

I have a sneaking feeling that there is a major property price correction coming soon though. Maybe I should encourage Mrs. H. to sell this house. A similar one on this road went for stupid money last year.

You can't inspire people with facts
- Small Gods

You have to live somewhere by anonimouse (4.00 / 2) #5 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 07:59:01 AM EST
So you'll just end up paying stupid money somewhere else. I don't think there's any indicator there will be a price correction of any significant magnitude. 

Girls come and go but a mortgage is for 25 years -- JtL
[ Parent ]
Gopher by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #4 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 07:50:52 AM EST
Is amusing in and of itself - I did actually use one in my early internet days but never found anything of interest. I guess it's also tapping into the same critique as this great talk on the website obesity crisis that's been doing the rounds. Indeed maybe it was you that linked to it. I love the term "chickenshit minimalism".

Iambic Web Certified

gopher by MillMan (4.00 / 3) #15 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 06:32:01 PM EST
When I started university in 1995 the school's little "internet package" disks came with a gopher client, specifically because I was going to the school that developed it. Even then it was already a museum piece.

"Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no libertarians in financial crises." -Krugman

[ Parent ]
Brexit... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #8 Sun Feb 28, 2016 at 10:44:56 AM EST
I think what worries me (as per the article) is that the Brexit claims, on examination, assume that national government will be really competent at negotiation with other countries.

Indeed, all of the counterfactuals of a Britain that stayed outside the EU seem to rely on UK governments doing the right thing across a bunch of turbulent years. That seems to be a big assumption.