Trump's very good at getting a certain subset of right wing voters to support him, but it's at the expense of basically every other group.
The Democrats already start with an Electoral College advantage.
Then there is the fact that Democrats have become increasingly dominant among Hispanics, which has turned states such as Nevada, New Mexico and, to a lesser extent, Colorado, much more friendly to their side. Consider this: In 2004, George W. Bush won New Mexico over John F. Kerry. About a decade later, neither party spent a dime in the Land of Enchantment, and Obama won it by 10 points. (This trend, if not disrupted by Republicans, will make Arizona and Georgia potentially competitive by the 2020 election.)
"Clinton’s appeal among these non-Democratic voters is extremely limited. Just 29 percent of independents hold a favorable view of her, according to an average of three YouGov surveys taken since January; over 61 percent view her unfavorably."
So at -32, Trump is still more popular among independents than Hillary Clinton...--It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
fivethirtyeight.com is far more likely to be objective.---
[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
One side I haven't heard explained is the Republican Party doners' side. They cough up billions to choose a certain candidate, and suddenly the voters decide on a candidate that doesn't need their money. Will they let their bought candidates fall in line with Trump (and worry about "the next Trump" keeping them from power) or stop things here and now (which looks like throwing the election for Hillary).
On the other side of things, while Bernie is making a good show of not needing such money, he still doesn't appear to have a chance.
Describing Hillary Clinton as like a woman in front of a vending machine hit home though ...
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Clinton has a lot of work to do to overcome the bugaboo that certain elements on the right have made of her. Just mentioning her name in a fundraising letter is guaranteed to up the intake of donations.
We have, in the club, a very vocal (online) right-winger who claims that all property prices, low wages etc. are down to immigration. I haven't got the energy to argue anymore.
I have a sneaking feeling that there is a major property price correction coming soon though. Maybe I should encourage Mrs. H. to sell this house. A similar one on this road went for stupid money last year.You can't inspire people with facts- Small Gods
"Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no libertarians in financial crises." -Krugman
Indeed, all of the counterfactuals of a Britain that stayed outside the EU seem to rely on UK governments doing the right thing across a bunch of turbulent years. That seems to be a big assumption.