2020 election result?

Conservative majority   1 vote - 20 %
Labour majority   1 vote - 20 %
Conservative led coalition/minority   1 vote - 20 %
Labour led coalition/minority   1 vote - 20 %
UKIP majority/coalition/minority   1 vote - 20 %
Lib Dem majority/coalition/minority   0 votes - 0 %
Green majority/coalition/minority   0 votes - 0 %
Other   0 votes - 0 %
 
5 Total Votes
Tories might be looking hegemonic by jump the ladder (4.00 / 1) #1 Sun May 17, 2015 at 02:00:23 AM EST
But the Labour was in that position from 1997-2010 until the global financial crisis.

Events, dear boy, events. But I suspect to win, a Labour party leader will have to do a deal with Murdoch like Blair did as he's the only one of these media tycoons that has in the past supported Labour.

Bojo by priestess (4.00 / 1) #2 Sun May 17, 2015 at 07:02:16 AM EST
Cameron said he wouldn't do another election didn't he? Which means the Conservative parlimentary party will pick our next prime minster in the last year or two of this term.

Bookies reckon they'll pick Bojo.

And he'll quite possibly win too, being popular and presumably having a year or so to dish out some pre-election tax-breaks or whatever so everyone thinks he's lovely.

Depressing really.
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Chat to the virtual me...

Not sure Boris is such a shoo-in by jump the ladder (2.00 / 0) #7 Mon May 18, 2015 at 05:57:35 AM EST
George Osbourne and Theresa May have quite a lot of supporters among Tory MPs. And being leader/PM is much more difficult  than being mayor and he has a lot of skeletons in and out of the closet.

[ Parent ]
Your analysis of what happened... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #3 Sun May 17, 2015 at 08:19:36 AM EST
in the election lines up with what I've heard from the market research community. Basically, younger voters did not turn out the way they did in 2010 and it made a big difference to the outcome.

We'll have to wait for more data, but from preliminaries this seems to be even more significant than the UKIP effect.

I'd guess... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #4 Sun May 17, 2015 at 08:29:25 AM EST
that one of the keys for Labour could be in doubling down on mobilising the youth vote. If they gave up on the newspapers and sought to build a real following in other channels where the young are more present, they could find an alternate base.

On the events front, I think the EU referendum will put quite a bit of strain on the Tories. After all, at least half of the non-doms, city firms etc. that bankroll them find Britain's membership in the EU very convenient for business and money purposes. It appears that Cameron did enough to satisfy a lot of potential UKIP voters, but with a relatively small majority, there could be rebellions on the horizon, whichever way he decides to campaign on the issue.

However, the SNP dominance of Scotland does look like it cements the Tories as the largest party. You'd need a LibDem revival, Labour to get half it's Scottish seats back before a typical swing to Labour would unseat the Tories.

[ Parent ]
My big fear... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #5 Sun May 17, 2015 at 08:31:31 AM EST
is summed up by George Osbourne calling an emergency July budget.

It suggests to me that a lot of promises are going to be broken, so they want to get it in as early as possible.

Not sure by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #6 Sun May 17, 2015 at 08:49:38 AM EST
Their accumulated promises are basically impossible and are going to be broken. But they've got five years with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act: don't think it particularly matters whether they break them now or after the next routine budget.

Growth forecasts are down and inflationary pressures are rising, which isn't going to make things easier.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
Hmm by Herring (4.00 / 1) #8 Mon May 18, 2015 at 11:57:22 AM EST
I take issue with the promise of "massive NHS spending increase". They really haven't promised much at all. The large increase in the elderly population and cuts to social care mean much more pressure on the NHS. The typical A&E patient isn't, as some would have us believe, a drunked lout who's had a fight, it's an frail person in their 80s who has fallen and there's nobody at the care home to treat them.

Also the majority of the benefits budget goes on the retired. As people live longer, keeping the elderly going costs more. Successive governments have known this was happening for decades, but nobody ever addresses it directly.

Anyway, now there's some stability, I might be able to get some company to commit to giving me a job.

You can't inspire people with facts
- Small Gods

Better get in quick by jump the ladder (4.00 / 3) #9 Mon May 18, 2015 at 12:02:23 PM EST
Before the EU Referendum then...

[ Parent ]