Drive-ins where you don't drive in?

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I'm preferring Canada's minority gov't by marvin (4.00 / 1) #1 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 03:20:02 PM EST
I can only wish that Jean Chretien could have had a minority as well in the 1990s when he was PM.

Maybe I'm getting cynical, I was expecting a cam-style nsfw image on the hung parliament link, showcasing some well-endowed MP candidates or something.

Elect a well-hung parliament - big balls for all.

saturday the 17th by aphrael (4.00 / 1) #2 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 03:20:19 PM EST
millman and lindze are both involved in my mock trial thing; none of us will be available until after 5, and i've promised my volunteers dinner, so i (and likely they) won't be available until around 7.

dinner is at ti couz, a creperie in the mission. you and others would be welcome to crash dinner (although i'm only paying for dinner for the volunteers. :))

my suggestion would be to plan on meeting at zeitgeist around 7.30-8 for drinking.
If television is a babysitter, the internet is a drunk librarian who won't shut up.

I am up for either of those (nt) by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #3 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 03:26:45 PM EST

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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]
I think by MillMan (4.00 / 1) #6 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 05:05:45 PM EST
He should come to dinner with us, then we retire to zeitgeist for a pint or 15. It's been a while:


"Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no libertarians in financial crises." -Krugman

[ Parent ]
That bloke in the camo by ambrosen (4.00 / 1) #7 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 07:10:43 PM EST
looks humongous. Can't be anyone who used to hang out here, can it?

[ Parent ]
it's like there's two of him! by MillMan (4.00 / 1) #8 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 07:44:58 PM EST

"Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no libertarians in financial crises." -Krugman

[ Parent ]
The camo seems to be broken. by Driusan (4.00 / 1) #10 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 08:06:08 AM EST


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Vive le Montréal libre.
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Sounds good! by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #12 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 02:18:32 PM EST
I'll crash the dinner, and make Zeitgeist 7:30 - 8 the Official Meetup Venue in case anyone's shy.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
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Someone's following me around the Innerwebs! by ammoniacal (4.00 / 1) #4 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 03:44:20 PM EST
I need to get out more, I think.

"To this day that was the most bullshit caesar salad I have every experienced..." - triggerfinger

3-way swingometer is interesting... by Metatone (2.00 / 0) #5 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 04:58:34 PM EST
The question I haven't researched yet is how many Lib Dem seats are likely to turn Conservative. There's definitely a few marginals where any move of the vote from Labour to Con will put the Tories over the top to take the seat away from the sitting Lib Dem. That makes a hung parliament less likely. I am noticing it feels like the Lib Dems are getting more media coverage ahead of this election than the last one - but who knows if that really helps them.

My wacky proposal of the day for the Lib Dems - go all out on the Tories over Europe... if they can force some statements out that could bolster the UKIP vote. Splitting the Tory vote is the LD best chance to hang on in seats where otherwise the surge would wash them away.

In the end however, if asked to bet, I'd be betting on a Tory win.



It's a very cool visualisation by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #9 Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 10:31:12 PM EST
Looks to be generalizable to n-parties, too.

Iambic Web Certified

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The Tories have gained some ground by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #14 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 02:37:44 PM EST
Since my last prediction.

Not all hung parliaments are equal: in a hung parliament where the Tories have more seats than Labour and the Lib Dems combined, they're realistically either going to be a minority government or the dominant party in a coalition.

Forgetting swings for the moment and looking at poll leads instead, according to this comment:

Tory lead of 11% or more = Tory majority
Tory lead of 7% - 11% = Tory minority government or coalition
Tory lead of 4% - 7% = Lib Dems can put either Labour or Conservatives in power
Tory lead of under 4% = Labour minority government or coalition

Last ten poll leads:
Con +5
Con +7
Con +11
Con +8
Con +10
Con +10
Con +4
Con +10
Con +11
Con +8
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
I heard a claim on the TV... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #16 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 07:04:09 PM EST
that in the last few elections, the Tory poll has improved by about 8% in the last four weeks - the Ashcroft ground game is that good... which rather seems to settle it... haven't had time to check this out though...

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That seems a bit unlikely to be a general rule by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #18 Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 02:20:36 AM EST
8% is a pretty big change, and I can't see it in 2005 when I mess around with the graph.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
Thanks for checking it out... by Metatone (2.00 / 0) #19 Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 04:10:58 AM EST
and I hadn't found that graph before either, thanks for that as well.

Guess it was just a bit of Alex Ferguson style mind games by that right-leaning poll analyser... 

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so, the biggest loss for labour.. by infinitera (4.00 / 1) #11 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 10:04:01 AM EST
Is 10% of their seats, with Lib Dems and Tories each gaining roughly 5%, and a resultant hung parliament. This swingometer thingie is cool!

[…] a professional layabout. Which I aspire to be, but am not yet. — CheeseburgerBrown

Not quite by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #13 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 02:33:58 PM EST
I make the worst case for Labour to be with the black dot just after 3 o'clock, which gives a Conservative majority.

There seem to be more Labour/Tory than Labour/Lib Dem marginals, so swings to the Tories hurt Labour more.
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It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
7:30-8:00? by fluffy (4.00 / 1) #15 Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 05:33:21 PM EST
That's a pretty short meetup! 
busy bees buzz | sockpuppet revolution
I should be there, as inferred by LinDze (4.00 / 1) #17 Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 12:04:27 AM EST
<nt>

-Lin Dze
Arbeit Macht Frei
shadow by duxup (2.00 / 0) #20 Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 05:27:51 PM EST
That was pretty snappy.

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