House prices

No bubble   1 vote - 25 %
UK 1990s   1 vote - 25 %
Japan 1990s   2 votes - 50 %
Another option which I will write in and describe   0 votes - 0 %
 
4 Total Votes
Hmm. by Herring (4.00 / 2) #1 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 01:43:59 PM EST
"The recent house price rise was mostly driven by demand"

Not according to the Book of Vince. It is written in the BoV that the people were led to pay the prices of vastness by the mortgage broking of plenty fuckwittedness.

I haven't seen any evidence either way, but then I haven't really looked.

You can't inspire people with facts
- Small Gods

Houses... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #2 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 02:11:31 PM EST
I've been trying to think through the same question, renting doesn't seem like a winner long-term in London...

Shortage of housing may militate against a stagnation scenario, but the slow-motion nature of the recession does seem to point to stagnation. The quantitative easing etc. has stabilised the economy, but there doesn't seem much engine to growth. House prices have taken a little step up, but mainly on really low volumes of sales. I don't think there's any way to know right now, but most of the "cutbacks" talk seems to indicate that the firelighters will be taken away before the economy gets moving again...

A guy I work with by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #3 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 02:20:43 PM EST
Is seriously considering buying, he got mortgage approval today. He seems convinced he's got to get on the property ladder before prices start skyrocketing again. He thinks he need to get in before stamp duty goes up. And I think he probably thinks more typically than I do. If most people are still convinced that prices must rise, maybe they will.

But it's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from, at least for flats and small houses. When interest rates go up it's going to be harder to get mortgages, the young are being massively hit by unemployment. Even if everybody thinks the prices are reasonable, how are they going to raise the money.

And basically prices fell for about 8 years in the UK in the Nineties, and for about 15 years in Japan. This seems to be a much bigger recession, so I don't really see where the sentiment that this time they'll start rising after 2 years comes from.
--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?

[ Parent ]
Have to agree with you... by Metatone (4.00 / 1) #6 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 03:39:12 PM EST
I don't see where the money comes from to push general house prices up in the next few years.

It seems to me there's a particular problem with drawing conclusions from the prices trends of the low sales volumes of the moment.
London is basically 3 zones:

A) A City zone - prices dependent on bankers bonuses (so prices went down, but are now on the rise again anticipating the return of bonus-time)

B) An international zone - prices stable to growing - areas where wealthy foreigners and foreign real-estate investment funds buy...

C) The "normal" zone - prices dictated by the incomes of people in the other 80% of the population...

It seems to me that the stability/slight growth in zone B and return to rise in zone A form a larger part of the small volume of sales at the moment. Zone C is basically paralysed... so people are extrapolating that "prices are going up" from a really biased sample.

But... it's a couple of months since I looked closely at the figures... 

[ Parent ]
(Comment Deleted) by Beechwood 45789 (2.00 / 0) #4 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 02:21:54 PM EST

This comment has been deleted by Beechwood 45789



Warren Ellis by iGrrrl (4.00 / 2) #5 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 02:37:42 PM EST
I quote him in my grant writing seminars.

Also, I recommend his web coming, Freakangels, Six new panels free on Fridays.

"Beautiful wine, talking of scattered everythings"
(and thanks to Scrymarch)

I love Freakangels by gpig (4.00 / 3) #9 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 04:50:21 PM EST
and coincidentally, I wish I had glowy purple eyes!
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(,   ,') -- eep
[ Parent ]
But it's a whole package by iGrrrl (4.00 / 2) #13 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 08:33:13 PM EST
You might end up with white hair, and a tin foil hat.

"Beautiful wine, talking of scattered everythings"
(and thanks to Scrymarch)

[ Parent ]
I can deal with that by gpig (4.00 / 2) #16 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 10:57:36 PM EST
as long as I get the mind powers!
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(,   ,') -- eep
[ Parent ]
Oh shit, that's him!? by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #15 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 08:42:20 PM EST
Somehow I never made that connection!
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman
[ Parent ]
Transmetropolitan by ni (4.00 / 2) #7 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 04:07:38 PM EST
It gets much better as it proceeds, but start at the beginning! It's really very good.


"These days it seems like sometimes dreams of Italian hyper-gonadism are all a man's got to keep him going." -- CRwM
Coffee machines. by ambrosen (4.00 / 1) #8 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 04:45:37 PM EST
I don't actually own one, but I know that my Bosch toaster and my Philips kettle are both sturdy and destined to last. I was discussing small appliances with my sister the other day (she has got through several hand blenders in the last few years), and my thought would be to get the John Lewis own brand one.

Coffee machines by lm (4.00 / 2) #10 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 05:32:05 PM EST
I've not had a single problem with my Boudon french freedom press. I did have a Hormel one made from plastic that died rather spectacularly.

Brauns' machines are good too. I think my father used the same Braun coffee maker for over twenty years. I think he bought a commercial grade one, though.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
Our last press was glass, and it broke by georgeha (4.00 / 1) #11 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 07:50:48 PM EST
the current one is plastic, and it's been working about a year.


[ Parent ]
I gave up on glass too by ad hoc (4.00 / 1) #20 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 11:16:00 AM EST
Seems like I'd wash it twice then drop it on the counter-top and break it. The plastic one is working well.
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[ Parent ]
you get what you pay for by Dr H0ffm4n (2.00 / 0) #23 Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 11:17:51 AM EST
If TE wants good coffee from a machine that will last then he should just get a Gaggia Baby Class?

[ Parent ]
I hear Technivorm is what the cool kids use by lm (2.00 / 0) #24 Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 08:17:42 PM EST
But I'm not a cool kid.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]
I gues that'd do. If you like filter coffee by Dr H0ffm4n (2.00 / 0) #25 Fri Dec 11, 2009 at 04:52:47 AM EST


[ Parent ]
good blogs/bad books by Kellnerin (4.00 / 1) #12 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 08:17:18 PM EST
Examples?

--
"Plans aren't check lists, they are loose frameworks for what's going to go wrong." -- technician
Opinions will differ by TheophileEscargot (2.00 / 0) #21 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 12:39:23 PM EST
But I'd say Cory Doctorow and Charles Stross for good blogs, bad books (now anyway); George R.R. Martin and Alastair Reynolds for good books, bad blogs.
--
It is unlikely that the good of a snail should reside in its shell: so is it likely that the good of a man should?
[ Parent ]
interesting by Kellnerin (2.00 / 0) #22 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 06:02:22 PM EST
I had never considered that dichotomy before. I don't actually follow very many writer's blogs. I enjoy both Max Barry's books and his blog, but I wouldn't say either are the epitome of their form. Then there are those blogs that become books, but in that case I don't know why you'd read both.

--
"Plans aren't check lists, they are loose frameworks for what's going to go wrong." -- technician
[ Parent ]
"How long are you planning to stay?" by ucblockhead (4.00 / 2) #14 Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 08:40:17 PM EST
That's the single most important question to ask when buying.

The other important thing to remember is that the true cost of a house is based on the mortgage rate.  If housing prices drop but interest rates rising, you are doing yourself no favor by waiting unless you expect to sell in two years.

The other important thing is to not get too wrapped up in it as an investment.  I think it is better to compare it financially to renting and for the other benefits (and deficits) ownership brings.
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[ucblockhead is] useless and subhuman

(Comment Deleted) by xth (4.00 / 2) #17 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 05:39:34 AM EST

This comment has been deleted by xth



[ Parent ]
It is as issue if by Herring (4.00 / 1) #18 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 05:52:57 AM EST
you are using the house "value" to guarantee other loans. But that could lead to madness ...

I agree that it's daft. Take other stuff you need to live - if the price of food, water, fuel goes up then that's considered bad. If the price of shelter goes up then that's good? Really?

You can't inspire people with facts
- Small Gods

[ Parent ]
Turner Prize by nebbish (4.00 / 1) #19 Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 08:20:52 AM EST
Hoping to go down on Saturday. Apparently close-up Richard Wright's painting is full of minute detail.

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It's political correctness gone mad!

Home Ownership by jimgon (2.00 / 0) #26 Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 09:10:52 AM EST
Don't think of Home Onwership as an investment.  It's not.  Between the interest paid and the repairs which will inevitably need to be made a home is not an investment.  Investment real estate is an entirely different thing and used for rentals.  




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Technician - "We can't even get decent physical health care. Mental health is like witchcraft here."